The Battle for Raqqa: Berlin 1945 or Seville 1936?

June 11, 2016 -

Svyatoslav Knyazev, PolitRussia - 

Translated by J. Arnoldski

Around May 20th, the so-called “Syrian Democratic Forces”, the main component of which are Kurdish militias, undertook a rather serious attempt to advance on the Syrian capital of ISIS, Raqqa. They undertook this action not by themselves but apparently on the initiative of the United States. Before the beginning of the offensive, the four-star general and head of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM), Joseph Leonard Votel, visited Northern Syria. 

Syria and Russia vs. the Kurds and the US

It is difficult to believe, and it indeed smacks of surrealism, that the Syrian Democratic Forces include Kurdish brigades, i.e., the natural enemies of the US’ NATO ally, Turkey, and the sworn allies of the US’ natural enemy, Assad. Nevertheless, they are supported by approximately 250 American “military advisors/marines” (apparently these are US special operation forces), around 20 American combat aircraft, and up to a thousand PMSC mercenaries from NATO countries.

According to Washington’s official position, badge-wearing Americans are not participating in combat operations. But according to media reports, they are in fact personally fighting in the most difficult zones and are directing the targeting of US aircraft. The Yankee’s activity is confirmed by the fact that they have successfully spread scandalous photo and video materials in which they can be seen wearing the stripes of the Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces who make up the backbone of the SDF. 

Such open support on the part of the Americans for Syrian Kurds has caused a painful reaction on the part of Ankara, which considers the Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces to be a terrorist organization. The Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlut Cavusoglu, has accused the US of double standards and advised them to wear the badges of the Islamic State. He said:

“It is unacceptable that our allies have worn the chevrons of the Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces. We have responded to this by declaring that it is unacceptable. These are double standards and manifestations of duplicity. We advise them to wear the chevrons of the ‘Islamic State’, ‘Jebat al-Nusra’ and ‘Al-Qaeda’ when traveling to other regions of Syria. And when they go to Africa, let them wear the stripes of Boko Haram.” 

US officials apologized without any special servility, but have promised to ban “fraternal badge-wearing” with Kurds. 

However, the fact remains that the Americans are formally coordinating Kurdish operations against the Islamic State, which has received practically overt support from the US-allied Persian Gulf monarchies and allied Turkey, and which, according to number of analysts, itself emerged and expanded not without Washington's help. 

In this situation, Syrian-Russian-Iranian forces are acting at the same time as allies and rivals of the Kurdish-American alliance, and began to advance towards Raqqa a few days after the SDF did. 

Experts have begun to predict who will reach the ISIS capital first, who will hoist his flag of victory first, and whether or not there will be a direct confrontation between the American special forces accompanying the Kurds and the legal Syrian government aided by Russian troops. The Financial Times anxiously suggested that “the battle for Raqqa risks pitting Russian and US forces against each other” and pondered whether it would be possible to avoid such an undesirable collision. The hope is that American and Russian forces have already worked out cooperation.

It is by all means possible to understand the passions and attention of journalists. Capturing ISIS’ capital would be a grand media victory even more significant than the liberation of Palmyra. And Palmyra, in addition to its world fame for its cultural heritage, is extremely important infrastructurally as the “central intersection” of the Syrian desert.

In addition to its military value as the seizure of one of ISIS strongholds, the capture of is Raqqa is also ideologically important. A successful storm of the city would show that the “Caliphate” can’t even keep what it has proclaimed to be its own home.

If the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians achieve this, then they will show the whole world that they are the main fighters against terrorism and are fundamentally in control of the situation in the country. If the Americans and Kurds get ahead of them, then, firstly, the success at Palmyra will pale in comparison and, secondly, Raqqa, with its enormous slice of North-Eastern Syria, could be carved into a Kurdish national formation (whether federated or independent). 

The US absolutely does not want to see Assad’s army in Raqqa. The State Department Spokesman, Mark Toner, directly stated: 

“I do not have full information about the progress of the battle for Raqqa. If the city were to be liberated, then we would evaluate this like the liberation of Palmyra. It would be better than the presence of ISIS terrorists, but not much better.”

How much further to Raqqa? The positions of each side

For now, the possibility of clashes between Russian and US troops is unrealistic. The SDF have formally accumulated around 30 - 50,000 fighters  for the offensive according to different reports. In reality, however, only 4-5,000 of them have been deployed towards Raqqa and are mostly bogged down in positional battles for a few small villages. Although the Kurdish positions were originally 30-45 kilometers from Raqqa, they have essentially failed to advance. On the other hand, the SDF has built up a fairly successful offensive on the city of Manbij in the direction of Aleppo.

Syrian government forces are successfully advancing in the direction of the city of Tabqa located 40 kilometers from Raqqa. According to some reports, they were able to advance up to 30-35 kilometers in the first few days. According to the latest information, the frontline units of the Syrian Army are positioned 18 kilometers from Tabqa. On the map below, the deployment of the Syrian Army (the yellow at the bottom) and Kurdish brigades (yellow at the top) can be seen in reference to the city of Raqqa located on the Euphrates river midway between these forces.

Along the Homs-Raqqa highway are advancing Desert Falcon brigades, 18 tank divisions, 4 mechanized divisions, a regiment from Golan and the marine corps of Syria, with a total personnel of around 4,500 people. The road before them is being “cleared” by Russian attack helicopters. In addition to old Soviet tanks and conventional machine-gun-mounted trucks, a T-90 and the newest “Tiger” combat vehicle are taking part in the offensive. Media reports have said that Russian Spetsnaz are also operating on the ground with the Syrians.

Using long-range communications, ISIS has tried to strike their flanks and cut off the group from the main force, but this has failed. Despite the fact that the terrorists have reported their move to the highway, this in fact turned out to be a lie - in reality, they moved forward a little, but were soon defeated and retreated. 

Why is their no advance on Tabqa? Besides the fact that this is the “gateway” to Raqqa, there is also a hydroelectric power station and airfield, the control of which would untie the hands of Russian air forces. At the present moment, the home base of our aircraft is a bit distant from Raqqa, which adversely affects the capabilities of our airmen.

Taking Tabqa would give the Syrians a significant advantage in the offensive on Raqqa.

But then again, why are the Americans and the Kurds not throwing all of their forces towards Raqqa? It’s possible that the reason behind this is that they have other goals, namely, the necessity of seizing the above-mentioned town of Manbij. This city is one of the key points on the road between Aleppo and Raqqa. In addition, it is simultaneously a bridge between Syrian Islamic terrorists operating in the area and Turkey, as well as the barrier separating Kurdish enclaves. The latter deserves a more detailed discussion in order to understand the new plan of the US. 

Kurdistan as a tool for dividing Syria

In March 2016, Kurdish “cantons” announced the creation of a federal entity called Rojava in Northern Syria. The key role in this process was played by the “Democratic Union” which, according to statements by the Turks, is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party professing a national-Marxist ideology. The Democratic Union is not so much striving for independence from Syria as it is demanding autonomy from Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, this union plays a key role in the operations of the Kurdish self-defense brigades. In addition to the DU, there also exists the anti-Assad, more right-wing Kurdish National Council which insists that the “Democratic Union” is incapable of defending Kurdish interests. 

Kurdish autonomy already de-facto exists, but de jure it is not recognized by Syria or neighboring countries. Assad has reacted to any talks on the autonomy of this or that region quite painfully, which has added fuel to the fire and strengthened the hitherto not-too-powerful Kurdish National Council. This is forcing the Democratic Union to engage in operations in order to restore its credibility. The Americans are cleverly playing with these contradictions and have hinted that they will protect the Kurds while trying to bring the Democratic Union closer to them by using the fact that it is located between Damascus and Ankara, i.e., between the hammer and the anvil. 

When they started the revolutionary adventure in Damascus, the US needed all of Syria as a key transport hub of the Middle East. Assad was a key obstacle preventing American allies in the Persian Gulf from laying down pipelines through Syria running to Europe. Following the intervention of the Russian airforce, they were no longer capable of taking the whole of Syria. After all, how can they gain access to the sea in Latakia now that there’s a Russian base there?

It is for this reason that the US has left its bet on Kurdistan, and moreover a Syrian-Iraqi-Turkish one, since access to the sea can now only be achieved via Turkey. The key to the process of this creation is Manbij, the capture of which would allow them to begin to physically unite the Kurdish “cantons” and access the “gate” to Turkey. 

It’s clear that the Turks have figured some of this out and are not too happy about what’s happening, but who is asking them anyway? For the Persian Gulf Monarchies, it would of course be better to control this pipeline corridor directly through their spiritually dear and financed ISIS. But if the Caliphate in Syria fails, then in the worst case scenario there will still be the American-Kurdish variant. 

Moscow and Damascus’ task is sufficiently difficult. First of all, they need to take Raqqa, which will be far from simple. Secondly, they have to stabilize the situation in the Aleppo area and thereby shuffle the Turks’ and Americans’ cards. Thirdly, and this depends 99% on Assad, they need to resume talks with the Kurds and persuade them to return to a normal existence in the framework of a unitary Syrian state, even a federal one. Completing this task would be an almost complete victory for Russia and Assad. The rest will just be matter of technique. 

Seville 1936

Similarities between the aspirations of the “allies” for Raqqa and 1945 undoubtedly exist. In both cases, Moscow and Washington competed for influence on a territory liberated from an aggressor. In both cases, the position of Moscow was more altruistic and constructive, while Washington’s was cynical. Then, just as now, the US fought with one hand while supporting the aggressor with the other. Just as how US special services cooperated with the Nazis, so do they now have close contacts with the terrorists.

But the role of the battle for Raqqa in 2016 is inferior in importance to the role of the battle for Berlin in 1945. Rather, it is a prelude comparable in significance to the Spanish Civil War when each side tested its strength and tested new tactics and new kinds of weapons. The main battle will - God forbid that it comes to this - take place in the European and Far Eastern theaters - which is fine, if only it would be a political-economic and informational one. 

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The US wants to turn Skopje into the Balkan Kiev

April 15, 2016 -

Andrew Korybko, Katehon -

The Republic of Macedonia fell victim to the US’ latest regime change destabilization against it, with “opposition protesters” rioting in the capitalWednesday night and even ransacking one of the President’s offices. While Hybrid War tension has been building for some time already and was described by the author in numerous publications before, the spark that pushed them into acting was President Ivanov’s surprise declaration of amnesty for all the people under investigation as part of the “wiretapping scandal”, with the Macedonian leaderremarking that this is a necessary step in order to move the country forward and out of the political quagmire. The Color Revolution elements inside of the country exploded into fury at the announcement, enraged that their attempt to use the newly created and McCarty-esque “Special Prosecutor’s Office” as an anti-government witch hunting weapon had been dramatically foiled. 

The Enemy Within

In response to the sudden spoiling of its ‘constitutional coup’ plans, the US ordered its subordinate Soros-affiliated “NGO” networks and the “opposition” to turn up the heat against the authorities and initiate the progressive rollout of their second preplanned Hybrid War putsch, setting the Color Revolution wheels into motion in advance of what is expected to be a forthcoming Unconventional Warfare complementary campaign. An unpopular spectrum of anti-government “activists” – including ‘Liberal-Democrats’, Cultural Marxists, and Europhiles (essentially one in the same) – flooded into Skopje in a frenzied effort to turn it into the Balkan Kiev, but once more, the professionalism of the security services and the patriotism of the population played a large role in mitigating the immediate escalation of the urban hostilities and in preventing them from getting totally out of control. The threat still remains and the US’ intention to overthrow the Macedonian government is now out in the open and utterly undeniable to all objective observers at this point, but the hooligans were so far unsuccessful in their plan to exploit their series of violent provocations and create an opening to embed themselves in the middle of the city. 

Having taken a day to assess the events of 13 April, they can be seen in hindsight as an unofficial declaration of the US’ second Hybrid War aggression against Macedonia, pushed forwarded a bit from its original launch date due to President Ivanov’s surprise announcement but still close enough to the 5 June early elections to be able to destabilize them. Washington summoned the country’s internal political enemies out into the street in a treasonous act of anti-government defiance in order to intimidate the rest of the country and gin up more support for the movement among society’s most radical elements. The brief period of rioting was also meant as a signal to the Wahhabi/Irredentist Albanians that are under the US and Tirana’s influence (and for some of them, their direct employ) to prepare for launching the next stage of the Hybrid War. This could likely see them staging a Kumanovo-style attack that would in turn activate the Western mainstream media-manipulated narrative that the Macedonian Crisis is a Huntingtonian ‘Clash of Civilizations’ between Muslim Albanians and Orthodox Macedonians, which in any case would complicate the political turmoil by introducing strong shades of identity conflict.  

Nasty Neighbors

Despite being of critical importance to the stability of the entire Balkan region, the Republic of Macedonia cannot depend on its neighbors for help in overcoming the destabilization, and if anything, all of them besides Serbia have hostile intentions towards it. Before continuing, it’s necessary to expand a bit on Serbia’s projected reaction to all of this, since it’s the first country that would be most immediately affected if Macedonia is thrown into mayhem and at least one million immigrantsconsequently exploit this state of affairs in order to flood across its borders. At the same time, however, Serbia is in no practical position to constructively assist its southern neighbor, and even if it did, it’s all but assured that such moves would instantly and deliberately be misconstrued by the West and each of the two countries’ domestic “opposition” movements and transformed into an anti-government rallying cry . Faced with this reality and the much higher subjective priority that Serbia places on its own internal stability and that of Republika Srpska (which is being rattled by Sarajevo’s institutional attacks against it), Belgrade would probably limit any prospective support to Skopje to the diplomatic-informational realm. 

Greece:

To address the nastiness of the rest of Macedonia’s neighbors which believe they have a stake in the country’s destabilization and potentially even ultimate dissolution, it’s necessary to first and foremost speak about Greece, which has ratcheted up bilateral tension lately by allowing repeated NGO-organized immigrant invasion attempts of the Macedonian border. The lingering “name dispute” is what’s to blame for the Greek authorities’ eagerness to subvert their northern neighbors, believing that if the massive pressure incurred by this cresting human wave can succeed in toppling the authorities and installing Zoran Zaev’s pro-US puppet regime in its place, the new “government” might ‘compromise’ on the Republic of Macedonia’s constitutional name and thereby satisfy Athens’ longstanding will. In order to fulfill the mission that it’s been obsessed with for over two decades now, some Greek authorities are utilizing the tens of thousands of Mideast immigrants that are inside the country’s borders as “Weapons of Mass Migration” against Macedonia, anticipating that they can be employed (both figuratively and literally) as battering rams for pushing forward the US’ regime change agenda and tangentially achieving their own self-interests in the process. 

Bulgaria:

The other two neighbors that are interested in the Macedonian state’s downfall are Albania and Bulgaria, each of which have their own “Greater”/Irredentist aspirations to promote. Nearly a year ago during the last major Hybrid War disturbance in the country, the author wrote about how these two states were poised to exploit Macedonia’s misfortunes in seeking to tear it apart and geopolitically divide it between them, whether formally or via de-facto spheres of influence. The next day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned his Albanian and Bulgarian counterparts against pursuing this dastardly plot, and shortly thereafter the state-to-state tension lightened to a degree and Bulgaria’s “anti-terrorist/anti-refugee” border buildup was revealed to be the naked instrument of bullying pressure that the author predicted it was in the first place. Still, despite backing down from formally trying to unbalance the state and strategically distract the Macedonian authorities, nationalist elements in Bulgaria remain dedicated to turning what they view to derogatorily be an extension of their own country into an outright protectorate or re-annexed territory, and it can’t be dismissed that similar pressures such as the ones from last year will be repeated in the current scenario. Positive media coverage of the “opposition” and any forthcoming extremist Albanian elements would also function in a ‘softer’ but similar way in helping to promote Sofia’s ultimate objectives. 

Albania:

This brings the analysis around to examining Albania’s role in all of the intrigue, which is the most negative one of them all. Amidst its current immigrant outflow and dwindling domestic conditions, the Tirana elite are eager to redirect rising animosity to their rule towards the convenient distraction of promoting “Greater Albania”. Last year the Kumanovo terrorists were reported to have come from the NATO-occupied Serbian Province of Kosovo, and this time it’s believed that any extreme political-insurgent elements within the country will have the full behind-the-scenes support of the Albanian establishment. When it comes to the potential for Wahhabi terrorists and Daesh cells to rear their heads amidst any future conflict, Tirana would probably play a backseat role to all of that by allowing its Turkish ally to take the lead in handling these sorts of terrorists operations, just as it has battletested experience in doing over the past half a decade against Syria, and likely offering up its territory for this purpose. Furthermore, the US already has a brand-new terrorist organization waiting in the wings to act, the “Albanian National Army” that just sprouted up in occupied Kosovo and conveniently, in the reported words of one of its ‘commanders’, “considers NATO to be its friend”. The Albanian-American-Turkish terrorist nexus along the non-Tirana-administered areas of the envisioned “Greater Albania” (NATO-occupied Kosovo and western Macedonia) will definitely play a determining factor in any forthcoming Hybrid War scenarios and presents the utmost greatest threat to regional stability. 

Chaos At The Gates

Targeting Multipolarity:

The Republic of Macedonia is at the literal forefront of the US’ War on Europe, as the author explained in a prior piece for Katehon pertaining to the Immigrant Crisis. It’s recommended that the reader review the aforementioned citation if they’re not yet familiar with the author’s analysis on this topic, but the general idea is that the US is employing “Weapons of Mass Migration” in order to place the EU into a permanent state of Hybrid War tension and facilitate the Color Revolution removal of leaders that have pragmatic engagement with Russia and China. On a more regional level, the US is targeting the Republic of Macedonia and Serbia because they’re the key bottleneck states in actualizing China’s Balkan Silk Road project, which if completed, would complement Russia’s currently suspended Balkan Stream gas pipeline and together create the infrastructural backbone of a multlipolar future for Europe. 

Regional Tidal Wave:

Hybrid War in and of itself is destabilizing for any country and region that suffers from its most intense manifestations, but the most direct and debilitating form of chaos that it immediately leads to is an outflow of immigrants/refugees/undercover terrorists to and from the battlespace. This takes on a particular significance in the present day given the ongoing Immigrant Crisis and Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s February dire warning to the world that “hundreds and thousands of extremists enter Europe under the guise of being refugees.” The Republic of Macedonia is literally on the frontlines of this crisis and has amazingly stood strong in the face of the overwhelming odds against it, but faced with the recent commencement of Hybrid War within its borders and the possibility of the Color Revolution disturbances transforming into an all-out Unconventional War, it’s uncertain at this time how effectively it’ll be able to hold out. 

Structural Vulnerabilities: 

Greece’s repeated border subversions and the culpability that some of its government authorities and hosted NGOs have in worsening the Immigrant Crisis and funneling its most destabilizing elements northward to Macedonia can expectedly be taken to mean that the security services will have their work cut out for them in juggling the nascent Color Revolution threat, snuffing out any Unconventional Warfare ones infiltrating in from Albania and/or NATO-occupied Kosovo, and securing the border from an outright immigrant invasion. Furthermore, if Bulgaria once more decides to provocatively send troops to the Macedonian border amidst a rapidly escalating climax of the situation, then it could have the effect of stretching the Macedonian authorities’ concentration much too thin and opening up strategic vulnerabilities on one of these multiple fronts that could then be instantaneously exploited by the US and its allies in accordance to their many preplanned and forecasted scenarios. The end result of a successful regime change in Macedonia would be the barbarian-like storming of the country’s territory and an uncontrollable surge of up to one million immigrants right through the heart of the Central Balkans, precisely at the moment in time when the regional states had begun to finally breathe a collective sigh of relief that the worst point of the crisis was behind them. 

Reinforcing The Front:

In dealing with this possible eventuality, it’s necessary that the Macedonian authorities receive some sort of multilateral physical support from the same stakeholders that most immediately have something to lose if the government falls and becomes a doormat for the US’ “Weapons of Mass Migration” to invade Europe. Right now, as the author previously analyzed in an article for The Saker, the status quo equilibrium and the de-facto closure of the “Balkan Corridor” is presently maintained by joint the Austrian-Hungarian leadership that brought all of the Balkan states together and got them to overlook their bickering in favor of pursuing a collective and coordinated solution to the problem that plagues them all. The most effective way to proactively counter the chances that the incipient Hybrid War in Macedonia will demolish the border ‘floodgates’ and inundate Europe with an uncontrollable flow of “Weapons of Mass Migration” is for this temporary Central European-led security structure to take on a heightened role (by official Macedonian invitation, of course) in patrolling the Greek border and thus giving the authorities more flexibility in responding to the US’ other provocations. 

Concluding Thoughts

Macedonia convincingly appears to be on the brink of a large destabilization, a second Hybrid War that’s directly targeting its government but is also indirectly aimed at destroying the prospects that Russia and China have for progressively liberating Europe from unipolarity. Washington has thrown down the gauntlet, as expected, in using its proxies to send a strong message to Skopje that its democratic security methods in foiling the “Special Prosecutor Office’s” ‘constitutional coup’ plot and in protecting Europe from the uncontrollable ravages of the Immigrant Crisis will be met with the harshest asymmetrical response possible. 

The growing threat that a full-scale Hybrid War will break out in the Republic of Macedonia is very high, and the Moscow-based Katehon think tank wisely suggeststhat harsh anti-riot measures be immediately implemented in order to contain the Color Revolution threat. If the authorities can get a handle on dealing with this latest destabilization before it gets out of control, then they’ll be in a better position for responding to any predicted “Greater Albania” and/or Daesh terrorist attacks that might break out before the 5 June early elections. If these two pressing internal threats can be effectively neutralized, then Macedonia won’t be as vulnerable to the direct subversion that its Albanian, Bulgarian, and Greek neighbors are plotting against it with American and Turkish ‘Lead From Behind’ assistance.  

If worst comes to worst, then Macedonia could greatly benefit from multilateral assistance in reinforcing its border with Greece so that its security services could more easily react to internal provocations as they arise, which would thus enable the government to put down any destabilizing domestic disturbances while relying on its international partners and equal strategic stakeholders in protecting the southern border from a “Weapons of Mass Migration” invasion into all of them. The less than two-month period before the election will be absolutely critical for the stability of the Balkans and the rest of Europe, but if history is any indication, then just as they did last year around this time, the Macedonian people will legendarily succeed in knocking out the Hybrid War threat that the US is once more siccing on them and ultimately landing Uncle Sam another embarrassing black eye. 






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How Turkey begged pardon

How Turkey begged pardon
"Awgust", in KONT.ws, April 10, 2016

Translated from Russian by Tom Winter

With only a bit more than a month and a half left till summer, and, as I wrote earlier, Mr. Erdogan pulled a bit of a surprise by saying that it was time to build up relationships with these odious, but oh-so necessary Russians because the height of the tourist season, is, if not right on the nose, already at hand.

Since then, I have not seen any updates or heard any statements from our politicians about any major changes in relations with Turkey, except, perhaps, a slight expansion of the list of Turkish goods that Russia no longer imports. 

However, the Turkish Foreign Minister yesterday said the opposite, that supposedly there has been a positive shift in Russian-Turkish relations. As  Cavusoglu (head of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs) put it, Moscow's actions have meant a perceivable shift in our relationship, but that they used to be too emotional. 

Emotional (!), Well you shot down our plane, so why wouldn't we be emotional, idiot? We should pretend nothing happened? But that is not all. He followed up with condolences. Yes, condolences from Turks! Just read on: 

"We did not want the Russian plane to get shot down, but there are certain requirements for the protection of our air space. After the incident, we expressed our regret and condolences at the highest level. If Russia will take steps, then relations will get back to normal." 

So it is up to Russia to take some steps. ... Is it possible to call this crap "condolences"? Not for me. The Turks' desire to restore cooperation with us is growing exponentially, but the Turkish pride is so great that it simply does not allow them to apologize in any normal manner.

And then after this sorrowful apology, he decided to remind us that Turkey is good for something: 

"Despite all this, Turkey is the only NATO country that does not support sanctions against Russia. Moscow must recognize this fact." 

Well, well, now, we just just need to forgive, to lift sanctions, to restore the visa regime, in a word, to go back to the bygone relationship. Too convincing. They are good guys. 

Screw it! With such an apology let them go warm themselves with four errors in the word "warm," and if it they are not comfy with the fact that they did not impose sanctions on us, then let them, so they can keep peace with NATO: won't bother us any.



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The Road to Western Armenia Begins in Artsakh

April 10th, 2016 ~ Fort Russ News ~ 

 By: Arevordi, edited by J. Flores ~ 

Artsakh today plays a major role in Eurasia's Great Game. Artsakh's existence as an unrecognized military fortress serves the geostrategic interests of the Kremlin. While the unresolved dispute over Artsakh ensures Armenia's political dependence on Moscow, Artsakh has also been the Russian sledgehammer hanging over Turkish heads, the sharp sickle that in one swoop can sever one of the strategic energy lifelines of the West. 

Simply put, Artsakh ensures Armenia's dependence on Moscow and Azerbaijan's fear of Moscow. As a result, strategic planners in Moscow will not tolerate any military misadventures by Baku. Fearing, however, that Baku may be under intense pressure to resolve its problems militarily, Moscow has been strengthening its military presence throughout the north Caucasus, as well as those located in Armenia.

Armenians of Artsakh are the only major group within the Armenian nation that were not fully subjugated by any power at any time in history, they are the direct genetic decedents of our ancient warrior-aristocracy class. In other words: Armenians of Artsakh carry within their genetic code the traits of our valiant ancient ancestors. It is therefore fully understandable why a vast majority of the greatest Armenian military men in modern times were derived from the general vicinity of Artsakh. 

This fact alone speaks volumes about the paramount importance of pedigree. While the rest of the Armenian nation was deprived of its warrior and aristocratic classes and systematically reduced to existing as subservient peasants, artisans and petty merchants during the course of the past one thousand years, Armenians of Artsakh were able to preserve our people's ancient characteristics: Resourceful, courageous, disciplined, resilient, stubborn, intelligent, patriotic and warlike. Needless to say, Azeris found all this out the hard way during the 1990's. The land of Artsakh reminded all Armenians that Armenia's enemy has always been and continues to be the Turk. The land of Artsakh showed us all that the only way forward is through armed struggle. 

The land of Artsakh also gave us all a real lesson in genuine patriotism and realpolitik. In a certain sense, Artsakh saved Armenia and the Diaspora, not the other way around.

If Western Armenia is to get liberated someday, it will only come by way of a Russian-Armenian force once again marching westward from the south Caucasus. The road to Western Armenia therefore starts in Eastern Armenia and the keys to Western Armenia are thus found in the Kremlin. We have been dreaming about the liberation of Western Armenia for decades. All of a sudden, it feels as if that dream can become a reality. Are we ready? Are we as a people ready to play a role if Russia does go to war against Turkey? 

The Russian army's lightning advance into the Armenian Highlands during the Caucasus Campaign of the First World War showed Armenians that the liberation of Western Armenia is a possibility, given that it is done under the right circumstances. The heroic campaign one hundred years ago encouraged us to prepare, at least mentally, for the next historic opportunity. That historic opportunity may have already come. What Ankara did on November 24th (2015) was an act of war and it may yet prove to be its death knell.

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Turkish mercenaries and trainers to help the Azerbaijani army to attack Karabakh

April 4th, 2016 ~ Fort Russ ~ 

Rusvesna, translated by Joaquin Flores ~

Turkish instructors and mercenaries will help Azerbaijani armed forces on the contact line of Karabakh, it was first reported in Armenian media.

"Informed sources report that on the front line of contact of the south-easterly direction towards helping the Azeri forces of the Turkish military instructors and mercenaries", - transmits, for example, the Armenian news portal ermenihaber.am.

We contacted the person who is in the thick of things, and asked him to comment on this information:

"Turkish instructors here, I confirm", - he told the Rusvesna, as a competent source in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

"Now the clashes are continuing in spite of Azerbaijan's stories about their stopping. Don't believe their words,  battles and skirmishes are in fact continuing, "- said the source for Rusvesna.

Armenian-Azerbaijani tensions and serious battles with the use of heavy equipment continue to remain the focus of Turkish electronic media.

In particular, Turkey's state-run news Anadolu agency, citing the Turkish media (Hurriyet, Milliyet, Sabah, HaberTurk) says that afterwards the Turkish President had a telephone conversation with the head of Azerbaijan, who also hosted Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

"Russian Spring" reported The phone conversation heads of states, in which Erdogan expressed his condolences to Ilham Aliyev for the death of the Armed Forces troops of Azerbaijan and Baku, and assured support .

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