The Road to Western Armenia Begins in Artsakh

April 10th, 2016 ~ Fort Russ News ~ 

 By: Arevordi, edited by J. Flores ~ 

Artsakh today plays a major role in Eurasia's Great Game. Artsakh's existence as an unrecognized military fortress serves the geostrategic interests of the Kremlin. While the unresolved dispute over Artsakh ensures Armenia's political dependence on Moscow, Artsakh has also been the Russian sledgehammer hanging over Turkish heads, the sharp sickle that in one swoop can sever one of the strategic energy lifelines of the West. 

Simply put, Artsakh ensures Armenia's dependence on Moscow and Azerbaijan's fear of Moscow. As a result, strategic planners in Moscow will not tolerate any military misadventures by Baku. Fearing, however, that Baku may be under intense pressure to resolve its problems militarily, Moscow has been strengthening its military presence throughout the north Caucasus, as well as those located in Armenia.

Armenians of Artsakh are the only major group within the Armenian nation that were not fully subjugated by any power at any time in history, they are the direct genetic decedents of our ancient warrior-aristocracy class. In other words: Armenians of Artsakh carry within their genetic code the traits of our valiant ancient ancestors. It is therefore fully understandable why a vast majority of the greatest Armenian military men in modern times were derived from the general vicinity of Artsakh. 

This fact alone speaks volumes about the paramount importance of pedigree. While the rest of the Armenian nation was deprived of its warrior and aristocratic classes and systematically reduced to existing as subservient peasants, artisans and petty merchants during the course of the past one thousand years, Armenians of Artsakh were able to preserve our people's ancient characteristics: Resourceful, courageous, disciplined, resilient, stubborn, intelligent, patriotic and warlike. Needless to say, Azeris found all this out the hard way during the 1990's. The land of Artsakh reminded all Armenians that Armenia's enemy has always been and continues to be the Turk. The land of Artsakh showed us all that the only way forward is through armed struggle. 

The land of Artsakh also gave us all a real lesson in genuine patriotism and realpolitik. In a certain sense, Artsakh saved Armenia and the Diaspora, not the other way around.

If Western Armenia is to get liberated someday, it will only come by way of a Russian-Armenian force once again marching westward from the south Caucasus. The road to Western Armenia therefore starts in Eastern Armenia and the keys to Western Armenia are thus found in the Kremlin. We have been dreaming about the liberation of Western Armenia for decades. All of a sudden, it feels as if that dream can become a reality. Are we ready? Are we as a people ready to play a role if Russia does go to war against Turkey? 

The Russian army's lightning advance into the Armenian Highlands during the Caucasus Campaign of the First World War showed Armenians that the liberation of Western Armenia is a possibility, given that it is done under the right circumstances. The heroic campaign one hundred years ago encouraged us to prepare, at least mentally, for the next historic opportunity. That historic opportunity may have already come. What Ankara did on November 24th (2015) was an act of war and it may yet prove to be its death knell.

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Katehon Forecast: Nagorno-Karabakh Ceasefire will not last long

April 7, 2016 - 
Katehon - 

Parties to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh have agreed to a truce. Press secretary of the Ministry of Defense of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Senor Hasratyan announced this. The agreement was reached at 12.00 am local time. Earlier consultations on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement were held by the diplomatic heads of the US and Russia, Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry. The conflict is being discussed at the OSCE Minsk Group meeting on the Karabakh settlement. It is expected that the co-chairs of the group - representatives of Russia, the US, and France – will today go to the region.

Today, according to the Defense Ministry of Armenia, the Azerbaijani side used MLRS "Smerch" and Israeli "Nagore" combat drones. Azerbaijan refutes this information, although it acknowledges that it possesses such weapons. The Azerbaijani military have strengthened their position in the occupied territories of Karabakh. Previously, on April 3rd, Azerbaijan already declared the Azerbaijani side had violated the ceasefire in the evening. The Azerbaijani side’s actions demonstrated that they do not intend to stop there, and plan to continue to advance deep into Armenian territory. Thus, the fate of the truce hangs by a thread.

The Western media and Azerbaijan

The policy of the Western media’s coverage of the conflict is noteworthy. Despite the influential Armenian lobby, the leading Western media agencies are actually taking part in the conflict on the side of Azerbaijan; they actively promote the diplomatic maneuvers of Azerbaijan - its alleged cessation of hostilities on Saturday. This is indicative of the activity of a more serious propaganda machine than the one that is at the disposal of the post-Soviet state’s security services.

Washington’s Hand

Despite the military buildup, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has, in the past, pursued a policy of balancing between Russia and the West. However, the number of provocations in the Karabakh conflict zone has increased significantly in parallel with the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, pro-Western forces in Armenia tried to organize the so-called "Electromaydan", and before that, to launch an anti-Russian campaign in connection with the murder of an Armenian family by Russian sectarian-soldier Valery Permyakov. After the start of the Russian military operation in Syria, it became clear that Nagorno Karabakh is the most likely candidate for destabilization by the West and pro-Western circles in Turkey.

Blackmailing Aliyev

It is important that the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan started the conflict when the country's president was in the United States, where he concluded an agreement on cooperation with the global hegemon. After some time, the Americans published the Panama Papers leaks, which compromised Aliyev. The behavior of the first person of Azerbaijan, which is not peculiar for him, suggests that the blackmail continues. The decision on the war was taken not in Baku, but in the West, which is interested in the conflict. So, a big war is inevitable despite the peace initiatives of the diplomats.

The war is unprofitable for Azerbaijan

The conflict is unprofitable, not only for Russia and Armenia. The former is forced to switch between other international problems, including Ukraine and Syria. The war in Karabakh is in fact a new front of the global conflict between the West and Russia. Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh have casualties, the war is already underway on their territory, and they do not intend to change the beneficial-for-them status-quo.

Azerbaijan, with all its high military capabilities recently demonstrated that it could not break the forces of Armenia and NKR using a kind of Blitzkrieg, and thus, a war that will bleed the nation is on the horizon. A return to the previous status quo would signal the defeat of Aliyev and the possible ousting of his regime. The possible internal cause of Azerbaijan’s renewal of the conflict - the need for a "small victorious war" in a crisis due to the fall in oil prices - is present, but is not decisive. The risk of failure outweighs the risks that would face the Aliyev regime in a peaceful situation.

Forecast

The tactics that Azerbaijan has chosen indicates that it is ready to move forward in small steps: biting off pieces of territory, and then declaring a truce to strengthen and further continue the offensive. After some time, the Armenian side will grow tired of these “truces”, and it will then be blamed for disrupting the peace process. The Western powers would support such behavior by Azerbaijan, including the use of their Turkish agents of influence. Turkey is likely not interested in the war, as it will face another new front in addition to the existing Kurdish and Syrian ones, which could lead to its "imperial overstretch", and as consequence, the Erdogan regime will be replaced by a more pro-Western one.

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Armenian Defense Ministry: 29 Azerbaijani Tanks Have Been Destroyed

Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ

4th April, 2016

RT

The Armenian Defense Ministry said that during the deterioration of the situation in the conflict zone in Nagorno-Karabakh, 29 Azerbaijani tanks were destroyed. This was reported by Press Secretary of the Armenian Defense Ministry Artsrun Hovhannisyan, reports RIA Novosti.

As a reminder, on April 2nd, Armenia, and Azerbaijan reported that the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone had worsened. The Ministry of Defence of both countries accused each other of staging attacks.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh began in February 1988 when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan SSR.

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Armenia Is Ready to Recognize the Independence of Nagorno Karabakh

Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ

4th April, 2016

Lifenews

Armenia recognizes the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), and Azerbaijan will strengthen the offensive in the conflict zone, which will ignite into a full-scale war, said the President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, at a meeting with ambassadors of member countries of the OSCE in Yerevan.

According to Sargsyan, in general, if hostilities increase, this would adversely affect the security of not only the South Caucasus, but also in the European region.

"Armenia, as a party to the 1994 ceasefire agreement, will continue to fulfil its obligations to ensure the safety of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh," said Sargsyan.

According to him, Yerevan has already begun work on a military cooperation treaty with the NKR Defense Army. Sargsyan added that the OSCE should intervene in the conflict, reports RIA "Novosti".

On April 2nd, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced the resumption of the Karabakh conflict: Baku reported aggression by the armed forces of Armenia and Yerevan announced "offensive actions" from the Azerbaijani side. In three days of clashes, 33 people were killed, and more than 200 were injured.

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Neutralized Azerbaijani soldiers and downed drone (+video)

April 4th, 2016 ~ Fort Russ ~
Rusvesna ~ transcribed by J. Flores

The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh has published photos of killed Azerbaijani soldiers and destroyed enemy drones.

In turn, in spite of the claims of a successful attack and the elimination of more than a hundred Armenian soldiers, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense has not yet presented any photographic or video evidence of their military successes. 

video: NKR Army Channel

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Turkish mercenaries and trainers to help the Azerbaijani army to attack Karabakh

April 4th, 2016 ~ Fort Russ ~ 

Rusvesna, translated by Joaquin Flores ~

Turkish instructors and mercenaries will help Azerbaijani armed forces on the contact line of Karabakh, it was first reported in Armenian media.

"Informed sources report that on the front line of contact of the south-easterly direction towards helping the Azeri forces of the Turkish military instructors and mercenaries", - transmits, for example, the Armenian news portal ermenihaber.am.

We contacted the person who is in the thick of things, and asked him to comment on this information:

"Turkish instructors here, I confirm", - he told the Rusvesna, as a competent source in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

"Now the clashes are continuing in spite of Azerbaijan's stories about their stopping. Don't believe their words,  battles and skirmishes are in fact continuing, "- said the source for Rusvesna.

Armenian-Azerbaijani tensions and serious battles with the use of heavy equipment continue to remain the focus of Turkish electronic media.

In particular, Turkey's state-run news Anadolu agency, citing the Turkish media (Hurriyet, Milliyet, Sabah, HaberTurk) says that afterwards the Turkish President had a telephone conversation with the head of Azerbaijan, who also hosted Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

"Russian Spring" reported The phone conversation heads of states, in which Erdogan expressed his condolences to Ilham Aliyev for the death of the Armed Forces troops of Azerbaijan and Baku, and assured support .

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"Georgian Legion" Is Ready to Help Azerbaijan "Conquer" Karabakh

Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ

4th April, 2016

Novorosinform

The paramilitary formation "Georgian National Legion" is ready to support Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh via its officers stationed in Georgia. This statement was made by the commander of the Legion - Mamuka (Ushangi) Mamulashvili.

"The Azerbaijani-Russian conflict was unleashed in Karabakh, which is an integral part of Azerbaijan. We do not support the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and we are all well aware that a collision is provoked by Russia and Putin's regime!", said the national legionary on their social media page.

Resolute commander Mamulashvili, after the adoption of the law on the right of foreigners to serve in armed forces of Ukraine, was one of the first who arrived with his group to participate in the punitive "ATO" against Donbass. Initially, he received a Ukrainian military ID. All members of the Georgian Legion are contracted soldiers of the APU, and became part of the 25th mechanized infantry battalion "Kievan Rus". The Georgian mercenaries have been fighting against the NAF on the territory of Donbass since 2014.

Ukrainian media made it clear that before the legalization of  the "Georgian Legion", there was a small sabotage and reconnaissance group of up to 20 people, which operated mainly in the territory of the LPR. In its composition, except Georgians, were French, Italian, and Swiss fighters. However, reliable information on the number of foreigners in "the Legion" and their countries of origin are unknown.

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New Armenian-Azerbaijani War: Cui Bono?

April 3, 2016 - 

Katehon - 

Large-scale fighting has begun in Nagorno-Karabakh with the Azerbaijani army starting an offensive on the night of April 2nd, 2016 across the whole line of contact with the armed forces of Armenia, and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. After the day of fighting it was ceased, but may resume at every moment. Artillery, aviation and tanks were used, with both sides blaming each other for the escalation of the conflict, but the features of the Azerbaijani attack indicates a pre-planned operation. The age-old conflict between the two peoples of the region: Christian Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis, related to the Turks, broke out with renewed vigor.

Why Armenia is not interested in the conflict

The resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is most dangerous for Armenia, which was previously quite satisfied with the status quo. The conflict of the late 80's early 90's resulted favorably for Armenia. Armenia could keep the conflict frozen for an indefinite time if it needed to. In fact, the territory has been under Armenian control.

Armenia had no reason to provoke Azerbaijan; after the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh in the 90's, Azerbaijan has considerably strengthened and modernized its army. Money from the sale of oil and gas helped to accomplish this mission, yet Armenia does not possess these resources. In terms of the size of the army, including reservists, the number of people, the economic potential of Azerbaijan exceeds Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic combined. This means that the war is risky for the Armenian side. In addition, Armenia will be forced to accept thousands of refugees, (Azerbaijan to take no one, because no Azerbaijanis would leave Nagorno-Karabakh), who will became a heavy burden on the social system of the country.

The dangers for Azerbaijan

For Azerbaijan, the current geopolitical situation is not the most favorable for the beginning of the war, due to the allied relations between Russia and Armenia. The only thing Azerbaijan can hope – Russia will not interfere in the conflict if the fighting does not go beyond the boundaries of Nagorny Karabakh. In the event of a conflict with Russia, Azerbaijan is doomed to be defeated like Georgia in 2008. But the risk of turning of the conflict into a full-scale regional war is very high.

Why is war against Russia's interest?

Among the major geopolitical players, the resumption of the conflict is the most unprofitable for Russia. Russia is the guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus and Armenia's ally in the CSTO. In the event of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia must help Armenia if the latter requests it. However, in recent years, Russia has been  maintaining good relations with Armenia, and moved closer to Azerbaijan to such an extent that Russia began to supply weapons to the Azeris. War means the collapse of the old architecture of international relations, which Russia has painstakingly been building in the region.

On the territory of Armenia, Russian military bases are located. In the event of an escalation of the war, Russia may be involved in it, which is also not in the interests of this country which is already occupied by the war in Syria and the conflict in Ukraine. At least Russia will be forced to end an active policy in Syria.

The dangers for Turkey

Turkey, as a regional player may be able to derive some benefit from the conflict to its east. First of all it would force Russia to lessen its attention to the Syrian issue,  which would strengthen Turkey's own position in this matter. In addition, Azerbaijan starting the war undermined its own relations with Russia, which means that it will have no choice, regardless of the outcome of the war, except to warm ties with Turkey. It is significant that earlier the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Cavusoglu, said that his country would support the "liberation of the occupied territories of Azerbaijan", i.e., aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time if the war goes beyond the borders of Karabakh, this carries risks for Turkey. Turkey will have to start providing significant assistance to Azerbaijan. Given the civil war in the Kurdish areas of Turkey itself, it will distract Turkish attention from Syria.

How profitable is the war for the US?

The only country that is interested in unfreezing the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, and in turning it into a full-scale war, which can drag in Russia as well as Turkey, is the United States. Once it became clear that Russia had managed to withdraw some troops from Syria, and with the help of others to take Palmyra, United States stepped up efforts to eliminate Russia from the game. A bloody conflict in close proximity to Russian borders is best thing suited for this objective. The US is also interested in the weakening of Turkey's role in the Syrian conflict. That gives the US an opportunity to make full use of the Kurdish factor.

If Russia will support Armenia, the United States will finally be able to get control of Azerbaijan. If Russia will not support Armenia, it will be used as an argument for the reorientation of the country to the United States. Unlike Turkey, the United States interacts with both sides of the conflict and in any case will not remain a loser.

During the invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was in Washington. The day before he met US Vice President Joe Biden. He was the last high-ranking official, who spoke with Aliyev before his army began the offensive. During the meeting, the President of Azerbaijan stressed that the position of Barack Obama regarding the inadmissibility of the status quo in Nagorno-Karabah is important

Later, Aliyev said that he welcomes the peaceful resolution of the conflict, but on the basis of the settlement of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. The behavior of Aliyev testifies that he received support from foreign forces, primarily the United States. Earlier on March 15th, he made a visit to Ankara, where this issue was also likely to have been discussed.

It is significant that the US was not quick to condemn Azerbaijan for the start up of hostilities, nor did they influence the president of this country against such a move, who was in Washington at that time. As for Turkey, the president of this country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, expressed his condolences over the deaths of Azerbaijani soldiers. Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz strongly supported a "fair position" of Azerbaijan. Objectively, the war could work against the interests of this power as well, but the current Turkish leadership has repeatedly proved that it can be led by the United States against its country own real interests.

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