Iran as a Multipolar Anchor

June 7, 2016 - 

Daahireeto Mohamud, Katehon -

Iran has proven to be one of the staunchest anti-US hegemony states in the world. Since the 1979 revolution Tehran has fought bitter US/Israeli-induced wars in Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Syria, Lebanon and occupied Palestine, either directly or indirectly, while also facing harsh economic sanctions from the West. The Islamic Republic of Iran is a capable and shrewd regional power that will always affect the fate of the Middle east as history has shown for centuries past. The country occupies a geostrategic position that straddles the Middle east, the Persian Gulf region/Arabian sea, Central Asia, South Asia and the Caucus/Caspian region. Those key regions will be a crucial ''pivot'' for the 21st century  great power geopolitical competition. 

The Unipolar US will try to isolate the Eurasian great powers, Russia and China, by controlling "the rimlands'' of Eurasia and by destabilizing the above mentioned regions with its preferred hybrid wars. Iran will be a key node that the US will need to connect its NATO/Turkey military bases with its Iraq/GCC/Afghanistan/Pakistan military presence through potential actual military presence in India, and all the way to Mynamar and into its Asia Pacific military hubs. If Washington gets its way in having military presence in Iran and as it seems in India, then "the Great Geopolitical Wall" against Eurasian great powers will be completed from the European/NATO theater, through the Middle east and South Asia and all the way to the Asia Pacific theater. Only Iran and a potential Pakistani strategic re-alignment with Multipolarity could be the obstacle of such a "Great  Geopolitical Wall".  The US defense secretary Ash Cater's terming of ''strategic handshake" between the US's Asia pivot and India's act east policy is another name of this Wall.

Geopolitically

Iran is key for the multipolar world: Tehran's influence in Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Syria, Lebanon and potentially in Yemen and its geographic location in the Persian Gulf region and the Arabian sea/Indian ocean, will help the Multipolar leading states to break free into the rimlands of the Mediterranean sea and Indian ocean. In deed, the country is on the crossroads between the Eurasian heartland and the Middle eastern rimlands.

Iran's strategic thinking

The current composition of the Iranian regime is a solid Multipolar anchor, the pro-Multipolar conservative/nationalist forces in Iran control nearly all key institutions of the state and the regime including the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, IRGC,the Assembly of Experts, the Ministry of Intelligence, the judiciary, all kinds of law enforcement agencies, and nearly all major media outlets. Only the presidency is out of their hands, the new parliament is a ''contested'' institution, but it is very powerful body. Larijani's re-election as speaker, will likely tilt  the parliament more to the conservative camp than to the reformist. Yet the moderates and reformists will still have greater say than before in the new parliament. However, the election of the hardline conservative Ayatullah Janati as the chairman of the powerful Assembly of Experts cements the conservative control of this key body and dispels the Unipolar media hype that the reformists/moderates have won big in recent elections.

Iran's strategic culture will make it hard for the Unipolar West to woo Tehran into its camp, there are forces on both sides (Israeli lobby in the US, Isreal itself, the neocons, US Congress and Saudi Arabia, to name few on the one hand, and Iran's conservatives and nationalists on the other), that will block any potential Iranian defection to the Unipolar camp. 

There is deep anti-hegemonic strategic culture in Iran enforced by its Islamic principles and the Wilayatu Faqih theological political system. Iranian security and strategic elites rightly believe their country faces a huge strategic threat from the US military presence in the Persian Gulf and Israeli nuclear weapons. Indeed, Iran fought a direct actual war with US in the form of the Gulf tanker war during the Iran-Iraq war. The animosity between Iran and the US is so huge that the recent nuclear deal is unlikely to make them friends or strategic partners as some may have hopped.

All US white papers,military assessments and other official documents show Iran, with Russia and China, as their strategic adversary, or even enemy. North Korea and US "hybrid war allies" ISIS/Al Qaeda are also mentioned in such documents probably for propaganda reasons.

Arguably Iran is even more anti-hegemonic and Multipolar than Russia and China, those three countries form the bedrock of Multipolarity.

 That is said, a Western induced regime change always looms large over Iran because of susceptible youth with social media, and Western-influenced activists and reformists. One thing that may mitigate this risk is the failed Arab Spring and its resultant disastrous wars. If the Iranian Multipolar media plays this card well and informs the population of the grave danger such Western engineered protests and revolutions can bring on their lives and country, then there is every reason to believe that majority of the Iranians will listen to such a message.

Guarding against Unipolar regime change after the nuclear deal

There is one strategic risk that Iranians and Multipolar leading states, Russia and China, should recognize and then develop policies to guard against it. It is what I call "Soft evolutionary regime change" which means the West has concluded that '' hard regime change" in Iran is nearly impossible and the only option available for them to  get their hands on Iran is long term 'soft regime change"; the strategy seems to follow two optional directions. 1) "Quick soft regime change" which calls for using trained activists, Western influenced youth and reformists and social media to engage in concerted campaigns against the conservative clergy, IRGC and other Multipolar institutions, hoping to weaken and de-legitimize them in front of the public, while also spreading Western liberal ideas and way of life. This plan envisions that when the Multipolar conservative institutions are weakened enough, the Unipolar youth, reformists and activists could make their final push with large protests and violence  and bring about regime change or they will vote out most of the conservatives in a Western-engineered elections, or  even some type of ''constitutional coup", like the one that has taken place in Brazil. ''Voting out hard-line conservatives'' was a strategy used in recent elections, and it has been successful in Tehran regional elections where what the conservatives call the ''British list" won in a landslide. If such scenario is replicated all over the country in future elections, then the Unipolar forces could easily take over power in Iran. 2) The other options is " long term evolutionary regime change" many US strategists and intelligence agencies are apparently strategizing how to put in place a moderate, reform-minded Supreme Leader or group of leaders when the current Leader passes away, they have recognized that without the Supreme Leader's approval no president or parliament can make U-turn policy change in Iran. The Western ''point man" for this long term strategy seems to be Ayatollah Rafsanjani with clear support from the current president, Rouhani. The two men and their supporters are seemingly in the process of recruiting a reform-minded prospective Supreme Leader to replace the current one, this strategy has been hit badly by the election of Janati to the chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts, at least, in the short term.

In post-nuclear deal Iran, there is a fierce political battle between Western induced-Unipolar reformist forces and Multipolar principled conservative forces.  The West sees the nuclear deal as the key to long term regime change in Iran; without that, it sees the deal as a strategic victory for Iran and the Multipolar order. They know well that Iran's intentions of building actual nuclear bomb has never been proven.

Multipolar leading states' policy 

In Iran today, opposing forces argue that the other side's international partners - Conservatives associated with Multipolar leading states, Russia and China, and reformists associated with the Unipolar West - are not helping the country enough. The conservatives rightly argue with the reformists/moderates cannot demonstrate what the West has done for Iran while the reformists argue cannot demonstrate what China and Russia has done, conversely. It seems both parties want to rely on their preferred international partners for economic development and improving their domestic position.

With that in mind Multipolar leading states, Russia and China should frame a coordinated policy to help Iran fend off Unipolar advances and attempts, for that purpose China should step up its already growing economic engagement with Iran and bring more investments, infrastructure projects and technology transfer, Russia's supply of S 300 air defense missiles to Iran is a good step forward ( though the delays since 2007 created Iranian strategic unease with Russia). Moscow's susceptibility to US and Israeli pressures on arms sales to Iran is a clear challenge to Russian-Iranian strategic relations. Iranians hate to be bargaining chip between the US and Russia or the US and China for that matter, and honestly they do not deserve to be dealt like that according to their rich glorious history and their current capability and future potential. However recent Russian direct military support for the Syrian anti-terror war and its positive effects on the ground has deepen Russian-Iranian strategic relations. Russian leader Putin is now popular among not only the Iranians but also Iran's regional allies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, he is called "Abu Ali Putin" suggesting he is close to their hearts.  To cement Iran as a long term Multipolar anchor, Russia and China should embrace full strategic relationship with Tehran and decouple the relations of Washington and Tehran.

Iran badly needs military modernization and advanced arms sales should follow the S 300 missile system delivery,so that Iran can feel secure from Unipolar military attack. It seems to me that the remaining five year sanctions on some of the offensive arms sales to Iran is not clear and Russia and China can argue that Iran has the the right to modernize its military for good defensive reasons since Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE and others are engaging in unprecedented arms acquisition programs. Russia and China can sign arms deals with Iran now and if the UNSC opposes such arms deals then the delivery could be postponed to the post-five year time limit. Such deals will give the Multipolar forces in Iran credibility that they can deliver something from their Multipolar allies. 

On the political side I think it will be good idea for the Multipolar forces in Iran, (with diplomatic support from the leading Multipolar states, Russia and China),to pre-empt US long term regime change strategy by electing a young, dynamic and principled conservative Crown  Supreme Leader before the current Leader passes away. Such a brilliant strategic move will foil US grand strategy on Iran, and will cement Tehran's long term Multipolar status. It seems the current Supreme leaders, Ali Khamanei, understands this importance well and has already begun the preparation for electing a new Supreme leader during his life.  As an outside observer of Iran (there could be deeper internal politics that we do now know), I think there are three potential candidates who will certainly uphold Iran's multipolar status if elected, they include, Mojtaba Khamanei, the son of the current leader, Sadeq Larijani, the brother of Ali Larijani, and the head of the powerful judiciary branch, and Ahmed Khatami, the  prayer-leader of Tehran Friday prayers. There could be others but those three are nearly proven Multipolar conservatives who will likely follow the path of Ali Khamanei, the current leader, who is now 76 years old and may have health issues. It will be wise for Iranian Multipolar conservatives not to wait and risk sudden developments in Khamanei's health and elect one of those three, or any other capable young conservative now, as a Crown Supreme Leader, or even the actual one if the current leaders agrees that.

Russia and China should also fast-track Iran's membership into the SCO organisation since the UN sanctions are no longer an excuse. I would argue the time that Russia and China were hedging their bets on Iran and were engaging  ''wait and see strategy'' has gone, after the nuclear deal it is time for action to deny Western economic or political domination over Iran.

The risk of India's acquisition of Chabahar port

The Chabahar port deal with India seems to be desperation by Iran to get finances for the port project, however India, with its recent "defection" to the Unipolar order, could use the port for malign anti-Multipolar activities. New Delhi has already started the destabilization of Pakistan especially Boluchistan, to scuttle China's CPEP corridor. The US seems to support India's acquisition of Chabahar port because it is counting on Indian influence in Iran to be its strategic interest. The Unipolar media celebrated the deal and portrayed it as an Indian victory over China and a direct challenge to the Chinese CPEC corridor. It seems the reformists/moderates in Iran have pushed the Chabahar deal with India forward because they wanted to balance Russian and Chinese influence in Iran, according to former Indian ambassador to Iran on an Indian tv show. If that is true, then the Chabahar project could be a veiled Unipolar project that is designed to strengthen the Iranian reformists in their quest for power. There are unconfirmed reports that Japan and South Korea may join India in the Chabahar port project. 

To be clear,there is not anything wrong with Iran trading with Unipolar countries, but if the trade and economic ties are designed for regime change operations like weakening the economic power of Multipolar Iranian forces, especially the IRGC as its seems, then that is a strategic threat and should be re-considered. There is growing evidence that the Rouhani government is bent on weakening the IRGC's economic power and Chinese companies' influence in Iran. The Western companies and NGOs that are going into Iran appear to be part of this strategy,  which I call ''keep the IRGC economic power down" and the "Chinese/Russian companies out". 

Conclusion

Although Iran is a solid Multipolar state, it still faces daunting challenges from a hostile Unipolar US, and its regional proxies particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia; the Saudis have positioned themselves as the ''attack dog" against Iran in the region, however their actual capability apart from using terrorist proxy forces is limited and Iran could easily defeat any direct Saudi aggression against its homeland. With the possibility of an Israeli sneak attack on Iran's key nuclear facilities and other military targets, Iran has been relying on its growing ballistic missiles capability and Hezbollah's missile arsenal, its staunch ally in Lebanon. In fact , it can argued that Hezbollah's military capability has been 'strategic stabilizer''  in the region because it seemingly deterred Israel from engaging in a major destructive war with Iran, Syria or Hezbollah itself, not to mention its huge contribution to the fight against terrorism in Syria and Iraq.

To successfully ensure its own security and guard the Multipolar Southern rimland flank, Iran needs strong support from its Multipolar allies, Russia and China, economically, militarily and diplomatically. The Multipolar forces in Iran need generous help from their fellow Multipolar leading states to balance against Unipolar advances in Iran and proxy wars in the region, specially after the nuclear deal and India's''defection" to  the Unipolar order which is positioning itself as a ''lead from behind' Unipolar outpost in Iran.

All of this will depend on the global strategic Multipolar developments which include: 1) Sino-Russian strategic re-alignment and its strengthening. 2) How will Russia and China generally coordinate their policies and strategies toward a given Multipolar regional state or potential one. They can have some limited competition in some aspects of their foreign relations, but the Multipolar strategic goal should always trump.  And 3) Russian/Chinese proactive, creative and substantive diplomatic engagement with regional Multipolar nodes like Iran and other non-US allied potential Multipolar countries, and giving them the military, economic and diplomatic support they need to withstand Unipolar pressures and provocations. 

Absent a strategic shock in Iran, the country is a solid Multipolar node and deserves much more support from fellow Multipolar leading states - Russia and  China.

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Kedah in the Pan-Eurasian Great Game of the 21st Century - A Geopolitical Analysis

March 31, 2016 -

Wan Fayhsal, Katehon - 

There’s something big going on in Kedah at present. International events have rekindled the prospect of Kedah – which sits at the tip of Malaysian Peninsular – to be one of the most important pivots for Pan-Eurasian integration.

The removals of sanction on Iran by the United States of America (the US) and the potential naval escalations in South China Sea have ramped up Beijing’s geo-economic diplomacy across Africa and Asia.

Beijing’s ultimate goals are: (1) to secure strategic access to natural resources and (2) to preserve its trade routes by way of diversifying its transportation channels in reducing potential risk such as unwanted blockades or unforeseen security threats that could falter its day-to-day trade.

To surmount these challenges, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased their presence in these strategic areas and channels by way of financing and constructing massive logistical projects that are beneficial to both China and the host countries – a win-win situation. Malaysia especially Kedah also falls within this strategic scheme.

For China, Kedah as a state in the Federation of Malaysia is not that crucial. Rather it is Kedah as the gatekeeper of the northern route of the Strait of Malacca that matters the most to its geo-economic interest.

The strait, which begins at the mouth of Andaman sea, is a narrow maritime chokepoint, sandwiched between Island of Sumatra and the contiguous Malaysian Peninsular. It the past, the Strait of Malacca has traditionally served both the Eastern and the Western nations in vibrant economic and cultural exchanges. But in this modern age and time, the strait is not only able to maintain its relevance but also becoming more indispensable as many East Asian countries are highly dependent on the Strait of Malacca to secure safe passages for their vessels to connect with the Western hemisphere. Such over-reliance has become a real geopolitical sore point especially to the fastest growing economy in the world – China.

Former Chinese premiere Hu Jin Tao had even coined the term “Malacca Dilemma”to reflect not only the importance of the strait but also the potential security setback for China. It is evident as the strait is the most important economic artery for China and the East Asian countries in securing almost 75% of their energy needs sourced from the oil-rich Middle East and Africa.

Malaysia due to its traditional custodian role for the Strait of Malacca has always been in the radar of China especially at this time and age when the Middle Kingdom is increasingly expanding their trade outreach to the whole world. Such endeavor presupposes seamless integration especially via the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) where the Strait of Malacca is one of the most important SLOC that straddles between the East-West divide.

Among all littoral states in Malaysia that are adjacent to the Strait of Malacca, it is Kedah that draws the critical attention from the policymakers in Beijing. They see Kedah as another potential addition to their strategic pivot in the region.

Why all of sudden Kedah is considered a potential pivot or more interestingly as a ‘zipper’ for China? Some of the answers could be glimpsed through Gwadar, Pakistan.

The first Pan-Eurasian zipper

Former President of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf in his speech to inaugurate the groundbreaking ceremony of Gwadar Deep Sea Port in 2002 described the whole region of Pakistan as an economic funnel that opens up critical access to the land-locked Central Asia. He also described Pakistan as China’s nearest corridor to the West and the Middle East.

Being at the southern most tip of the funnel, Gwadar is not only serving the interest of Pakistan but also the whole region of Central Asia and China for their access to land-based route via the Karakoram highway as well as sea-based route of the SLOC that opens the door to the Middle East and Africa. Gwadar as a logistic and transportation hub that connects the sea with the land, really plays an important role for Pakistan as a funnel or in a more nuance metaphor – a ‘zipper’ for Pan-Eurasian integration.

The concept of zipper for Pan-Eurasian integration was first comprehensively analyzed by Andrew Korybko in his article ‘Pakistan is the Zipper of Pan-Eurasian Integration’, published by Russian Institute of Strategic Studies (RISS).

Korybko sees Pakistan as a very important transit point for energy routes flowing from the Middle East that can be distributed to the land-locked Central Asian states as well as China. Geo-strategically, Pakistan is linked to four important economic blocs: the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, China, Iran, and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC – stretches from Pakistan to Bangladesh with India as its important economic anchor). This made Pakistan, in the words of Korybko:

“Uniquely poised to zip together a variety of economic blocs, taking advantage of both its convenient geography and China’s grand investment vision to make it happen”

China sees this potential hence they took President Musharaff’s vision further by augmenting Gwadar’s role via the proposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a trans-Pakistan economic corridor which begins at the mouth of Persian Gulf where Gwadar lies, crossing the Karakoram highway and ends up at Kashgar, China.

Kedah might not have the same geographical connectivity of Gwadar-Karakoram-Kashgar but it sure does offer great potential – by linking southward to the Island nations of South East Asia and Oceania in helping them to be part of the larger contiguity of Pan-Eurasian integration.

Kedah could be made as an economic hub that receives goods and services from the South to be distributed in multimodal land-based routes to the East, North and West Asia.

Kedah’s potential is not only confined to the land-based route. In terms of SLOC, Kedah possessed two natural islands: the Langkawi Island – a world-renowned tourism destination and the Bunting Island that could be utilized not only as a mere economic purposes but also for defense intents. The two islands especially Langkawi, are fronting the mouth of Andaman Sea and naturally positioned as the gatekeeper to the Strait of Malacca – one of the busiest straits in the world.

Since Bunting Island is already connected to the mainland via a land bridge, Kedah could also be a gateway to the Andaman Sea and beyond by carrying the economic goods that are transported through the land route along the West coast of Malaysian Peninsular either via the trunk road of North South Expressway or the electrified double-tracking rail network.

As these infrastructures are already in place, Kedah is set to become an important logistical and transportation hub for the Malaysian Peninsular as well as for the island nations of Indonesia, Singapore, and Brunei in securing their access to the Eurasian super continent via the land route.

Existence of an alternative route will not only help to decongest the Strait of Malacca but also offer the possibility for cheaper transport options and will reduce the environmental impact by the thousands of ships sailing through the strait.

The zipper in ZIPY

From geo-economics perspective, the largest mega project in Kedah, which is Yan Petroleum Industrial Zone or better known as ZIPY in its Malay acronym has the biggest potential to follow the developmental trajectory of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) albeit in smaller scale.

It is no longer a speculation but a possible future.

The signing of the partnership agreement between Merapoh Resources Sdn Bhd (Merapoh) and China Energy H City Reality Investment Co. Ltd (China Energy)  – a company owned by the PRC government marked a major milestone to revive the delayed ZIPY project. It also opens other economic vistas which will not only benefits China and Malaysia, but the whole region of South East Asia and Oceania.

Since 2005, the government of Malaysia had already approved the plan for ZIPY in which Merapoh – a special-purpose vehicle (SPV), was given the sole exclusive right after obtaining the necessary licenses and work permits to develop the whole of ZIPY.

The agreement will give China Energy 70% stake in Merapoh subsequently making them as its major shareholder while the rest of the shares are in the hands of local party. Merapoh estimated the total investment in ZIPY to be roughly at USD 140 Billion (RM 520 Billion) – a herculean figure which would dwarf other mega projects in the country presently.

With ZIPY, Malaysia through Kedah will play a very significant role as the ‘zipper’ for the both landed and maritime Silk Road, “One Belt, One Road” in ASEAN region.

Kedah in the China-driven Silk Road

China is not only investing in the logistic and energy sector but also in the fisheries – as demonstrated in the recently signed Memorandum of Understanding between China-based Qingdao Lu Hai Feng Investment Co Ltd (Lu Hai Feng) and the Kedah State Development Corp (PKNK).

They will jointly develop international fisheries centre especially for tuna in South East Asia through the establishment of the Kedah Integrated Fishery Terminal (KIFT).  The Kedah state government itself has recognized the project as part of Maritime Silk Road. By acknowledging Beijing’s strategic trade master plan, the state government hoped that it would spur further investment from the Middle Kingdom into Kedah.

China-based Beijing Auto International Cooperation (BAIC) also has plans to make Malaysia a hub for its electric cars for the Southeast Asian market.

But ZIPY remains the the crown jewel of China’s economic pivot to Kedah.

According to Merapoh chairman Datuk Bistamam Ali, 8% of China's total need for refined oil – roughly equivalent to 350,000 barrels per day – and refined petroleum products will be supplied by ZIPY via its crude oil refinery and integrated petrochemical complexes.

Both complexes will be fully designed and built by China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Corporation (Liaoning), a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China State Construction Engineering Complex and Storage Corporation (CSCFC) respectively.

China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not limited to the integrated complexes alone. Other key ZIPY infrastructure projects such as Multi-Purpose Marine Terminal, Floating Storage and Offloading Platforms, Crude Oil and Multi Products Interlinking Pipeline Systems as well as the Administrative and Staff Accommodation Complex will be built by the SOEs and financed by China state-owned banks such as The Import-Export Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC).

In short, the involvements of China’s SOEs throughout the project value chain especially in its financing and engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) aspects of ZIPY do mirror the development model of China’s involvement in CPEC.

The role of China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) is striking enough in CPEC. They not only secured the feedstock for their own-built refineries and petrochemical complexes from the Middle East, they would also be laying down network of pipelines that will connect these corridors and economic zones to China, Central Asia and potentially to Europe as well via the Russian existing infrastructures.

CNPC too is going to build the same oil and petrochemical infrastructures for ZIPY. Although Merapoh corporate website described the intermodal transfer through high-speed electrified trains as the mean to connect ZIPY to the east-coast of Malaysian Peninsular, the original idea to build the Trans-Peninsular Pipeline and Bachok Offshore Oil Terminal in the state of Kelantan that fronts the South China Sea thus far is not being clearly spelled out.  Although some details are absence, the ZIPY impact is real and no longer mere speculation.

Kedah and the String of Pearls

By now it should be clear to us that ZIPY is indeed another addition to China’s string of massive logistic and energy projects as envisioned by the Central Committee in their Maritime Silk Road master plan. The commitment exemplified by Beijing on ZIPY is not far off from, if not similar to, its commitment in CPEC.

The Chinese might have not acknowledged their possible long term plan to install their naval facilities at these sites but the prospect of ‘upgrading’ these special economic zones by co-opting them into their ‘String of Pearls’ – a network of military and commercial facilities along the SLOC of Indian and Pacific Ocean that connects China to resource-rich regions of Africa and Middle East – is not an impossibility.

Continuous instabilities surrounding the gulf of Aden, piracy threat in the Persian Gulf, revelation of India’s Indian Ocean Strategy and maritime provocation in the name of Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) by the United States of America (the US) in South China sea – all these events have spurred China to aggressively secure their strategic interest along these SLOCs through various ways and means – ingeniously fronted by using their economic and business vehicles especially their SOEs. On the first glance it is seen as harmless. Yet it lethal in nature as Beijing’s strategic ambiguity is usually designed to cater to their economic and security interest in a parallel manner.

China’s strategic ambiguity in securing access to these SLOCs has not stopped them to build their first overseas military base in Djibouti – a clear signal of urgency to protect their assets and people at all cost. Such move was done in the middle of heightened tension in the recent war in Yemen that threatens the maritime chokepoint of Bab el-Mandeb – a gateway where nearly 13% of China’s oil imports pass through it.

When things are spiraling out of control, China will not hesitate to flex their muscles anywhere in the world in the name of their national security that extends far and beyond their traditional border. Similar case can be seen in their strategy of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) that is supported by their controversial Nine Dash Line interpretation of maritime border in the South China Sea.

Such interpretation totally disregards the Euro-centric United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) yet China still insisted to make use of the Nine Dash Line in the name of their sovereign rights at sea. It provides ‘legitimacy’ for China to continue with their land reclamations to build artificial islands around the Spratly Islands. All of these drastic moves are actually meant for China’s regional security and defense although never declared officially by Beijing.

It’s not a surprise later if Kedah were to play the same role as these ‘pearls’. In case of Malaysia, Kedah is neither the first nor the last potential ‘pearl’. China is also building deep-sea ports for the state of Pahang (by upgrading the Kuantan Port) andthe state of Malacca. Both ports will be fronting the contentious SLOCs, where the former to the South China Sea and the latter to the Strait of Malacca. In the event of great emergency, both ports could be converted into the Chinese ‘pearls’.

But among all of China’s logistical investments in Malaysia it is Kedah that holds the most crucial role to China’s geopolitical future. Being the northern most state of Malaysian Peninsular, Kedah is destined geographically to play an important role not only for Pan-Eurasian integration of South East Asian and Oceania region but also for China’s defense as demonstrated by the String of Pearls/Maritime Silk Road dual-strategy of economic and defensive postures.

Strait of Malacca remains a critical pivot for China to control. It can be used by China as an insurance against the East Asian countries – the likes of Japan, South Korea or even the Philippines. These nations, being the strongest US allies in the region are traditionally viewed by Beijing as a collective threat to China’s national security. China is fully cognizant on how the US is leveraging unto these nations to further its containment strategy against China in South China Sea.

In the worst-case scenario, Kedah as a China’s pivot could be turned into a deterrence option against the potential skirmishes and provocations in the South China Sea. The Chinese via Kedah as their ‘pearl’, which stands guard at the entrance of the Strait of Malacca could be used to ‘strangle’ the SLOC of East Asian nations especially the Island nations of Japan and Philippines. Their risk exposure is greater than China as they are relying heavily on the Strait of Malacca for their energy and economic route to the West.

Such potential scenario will surely invite other global powers to counter check China in Kedah or in other parts of Malaysia especially the ever-vulnerable Borneo.

As one of the five-veto nations in the United Nations Security Council, China is a global power that has all the latitude to secure their interests globally by any means necessary. With massive financial and technology capability at their disposal, not to forger their burgeoning manpower, China can easily realize their vision and missions just like how they have committed to Gwadar in Pakistan.

Kedah is next in line for China. Through ZIPY, Malaysia will surely be inducted into this Great Game of 21st Century. It’s only a matter of time. Let’s pray our government is ready for this as at present we are nothing but a passenger or worse  – a spectator. 

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Obama: "People of the World Do Not Look to Beijing or Moscow to Lead - They Call Us"

Fort Russ - 13th January, 2016

FULL TEXT: State of the Union Address 2016

Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, my fellow Americans:

Tonight marks the eighth year I’ve come here to report on the State of the Union. And for this final one, I’m going to try to make it shorter. I know some of you are antsy to get back to Iowa. 

I also understand that because it’s an election season, expectations for what we’ll achieve this year are low. Still, Mr. Speaker, I appreciate the constructive approach you and the other leaders took at the end of last year to pass a budget and make tax cuts permanent for working families. So I hope we can work together this year on bipartisan priorities like criminal justice reform, and helping people who are battling prescription drug abuse. We just might surprise the cynics again.

But tonight, I want to go easy on the traditional list of proposals for the year ahead. Don’t worry, I’ve got plenty, from helping students learn to write computer code to personalizing medical treatments for patients. And I’ll keep pushing for progress on the work that still needs doing. Fixing a broken immigration system. Protecting our kids from gun violence. Equal pay for equal work, paid leave, raising the minimum wage. All these things still matter to hardworking families; they are still the right thing to do; and I will not let up until they get done.

But for my final address to this chamber, I don’t want to talk just about the next year. I want to focus on the next five years, ten years, and beyond.

I want to focus on our future.

We live in a time of extraordinary change – change that’s reshaping the way we live, the way we work, our planet and our place in the world. It’s change that promises amazing medical breakthroughs, but also economic disruptions that strain working families. It promises education for girls in the most remote villages, but also connects terrorists plotting an ocean away. It’s change that can broaden opportunity, or widen inequality. And whether we like it or not, the pace of this change will only accelerate.

America has been through big changes before – wars and depression, the influx of immigrants, workers fighting for a fair deal, and movements to expand civil rights. Each time, there have been those who told us to fear the future; who claimed we could slam the brakes on change, promising to restore past glory if we just got some group or idea that was threatening America under control. And each time, we overcame those fears. We did not, in the words of Lincoln, adhere to the “dogmas of the quiet past.” Instead we thought anew, and acted anew. We made change work for us, always extending America’s promise outward, to the next frontier, to more and more people. And because we did – because we saw opportunity where others saw only peril – we emerged stronger and better than before.

What was true then can be true now. Our unique strengths as a nation – our optimism and work ethic, our spirit of discovery and innovation, our diversity and commitment to the rule of law – these things give us everything we need to ensure prosperity and security for generations to come. 

In fact, it’s that spirit that made the progress of these past seven years possible. It’s how we recovered from the worst economic crisis in generations. It’s how we reformed our health care system, and reinvented our energy sector; how we delivered more care and benefits to our troops and veterans, and how we secured the freedom in every state to marry the person we love.

But such progress is not inevitable. It is the result of choices we make together. And we face such choices right now. Will we respond to the changes of our time with fear, turning inward as a nation, and turning against each other as a people? Or will we face the future with confidence in who we are, what we stand for, and the incredible things we can do together?

So let’s talk about the future, and four big questions that we as a country have to answer – regardless of who the next President is, or who controls the next Congress. 

First, how do we give everyone a fair shot at opportunity and security in this new economy?

Second, how do we make technology work for us, and not against us – especially when it comes to solving urgent challenges like climate change?

Third, how do we keep America safe and lead the world without becoming its policeman?

And finally, how can we make our politics reflect what’s best in us, and not what’s worst?

Let me start with the economy, and a basic fact: the United States of America, right now, has the strongest, most durable economy in the world. We’re in the middle of the longest streak of private-sector job creation in history. More than 14 million new jobs; the strongest two years of job growth since the ‘90s; an unemployment rate cut in half. Our auto industry just had its best year ever. Manufacturing has created nearly 900,000 new jobs in the past six years. And we’ve done all this while cutting our deficits by almost three-quarters.

Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction. What is true – and the reason that a lot of Americans feel anxious – is that the economy has been changing in profound ways, changes that started long before the Great Recession hit and haven’t let up. Today, technology doesn’t just replace jobs on the assembly line, but any job where work can be automated. Companies in a global economy can locate anywhere, and face tougher competition. As a result, workers have less leverage for a raise. Companies have less loyalty to their communities. And more and more wealth and income is concentrated at the very top.

All these trends have squeezed workers, even when they have jobs; even when the economy is growing. It’s made it harder for a hardworking family to pull itself out of poverty, harder for young people to start on their careers, and tougher for workers to retire when they want to. And although none of these trends are unique to America, they do offend our uniquely American belief that everybody who works hard should get a fair shot.

For the past seven years, our goal has been a growing economy that works better for everybody. We’ve made progress. But we need to make more. And despite all the political arguments we’ve had these past few years, there are some areas where Americans broadly agree.

We agree that real opportunity requires every American to get the education and training they need to land a good-paying job. The bipartisan reform of No Child Left Behind was an important start, and together, we’ve increased early childhood education, lifted high school graduation rates to new highs, and boosted graduates in fields like engineering. In the coming years, we should build on that progress, by providing Pre-K for all, offering every student the hands-on computer science and math classes that make them job-ready on day one, and we should recruit and support more great teachers for our kids.

And we have to make college affordable for every American. Because no hardworking student should be stuck in the red. We’ve already reduced student loan payments to ten percent of a borrower’s income. Now, we’ve actually got to cut the cost of college. Providing two years of community college at no cost for every responsible student is one of the best ways to do that, and I’m going to keep fighting to get that started this year.

Of course, a great education isn’t all we need in this new economy. We also need benefits and protections that provide a basic measure of security. After all, it’s not much of a stretch to say that some of the only people in America who are going to work the same job, in the same place, with a health and retirement package, for 30 years, are sitting in this chamber. For everyone else, especially folks in their forties and fifties, saving for retirement or bouncing back from job loss has gotten a lot tougher. Americans understand that at some point in their careers, they may have to retool and retrain. But they shouldn’t lose what they’ve already worked so hard to build. 

That’s why Social Security and Medicare are more important than ever; we shouldn’t weaken them, we should strengthen them. And for Americans short of retirement, basic benefits should be just as mobile as everything else is today. That’s what the Affordable Care Act is all about. It’s about filling the gaps in employer-based care so that when we lose a job, or go back to school, or start that new business, we’ll still have coverage. Nearly eighteen million have gained coverage so far. Health care inflation has slowed. And our businesses have created jobs every single month since it became law.

Now, I’m guessing we won’t agree on health care anytime soon. But there should be other ways both parties can improve economic security. Say a hardworking American loses his job – we shouldn’t just make sure he can get unemployment insurance; we should make sure that program encourages him to retrain for a business that’s ready to hire him. If that new job doesn’t pay as much, there should be a system of wage insurance in place so that he can still pay his bills. And even if he’s going from job to job, he should still be able to save for retirement and take his savings with him. That’s the way we make the new economy work better for everyone.

I also know Speaker Ryan has talked about his interest in tackling poverty. America is about giving everybody willing to work a hand up, and I’d welcome a serious discussion about strategies we can all support, like expanding tax cuts for low-income workers without kids.

But there are other areas where it’s been more difficult to find agreement over the last seven years – namely what role the government should play in making sure the system’s not rigged in favor of the wealthiest and biggest corporations. And here, the American people have a choice to make.

I believe a thriving private sector is the lifeblood of our economy. I think there are outdated regulations that need to be changed, and there’s red tape that needs to be cut. But after years of record corporate profits, working families won’t get more opportunity or bigger paychecks by letting big banks or big oil or hedge funds make their own rules at the expense of everyone else; or by allowing attacks on collective bargaining to go unanswered. Food Stamp recipients didn’t cause the financial crisis; recklessness on Wall Street did. Immigrants aren’t the reason wages haven’t gone up enough; those decisions are made in the boardrooms that too often put quarterly earnings over long-term returns. It’s sure not the average family watching tonight that avoids paying taxes through offshore accounts. In this new economy, workers and start-ups and small businesses need more of a voice, not less. The rules should work for them. And this year I plan to lift up the many businesses who’ve figured out that doing right by their workers ends up being good for their shareholders, their customers, and their communities, so that we can spread those best practices across America.

In fact, many of our best corporate citizens are also our most creative. This brings me to the second big question we have to answer as a country: how do we reignite that spirit of innovation to meet our biggest challenges?

Sixty years ago, when the Russians beat us into space, we didn’t deny Sputnik was up there. We didn’t argue about the science, or shrink our research and development budget. We built a space program almost overnight, and twelve years later, we were walking on the moon. 

That spirit of discovery is in our DNA. We’re Thomas Edison and the Wright Brothers and George Washington Carver. We’re Grace Hopper and Katherine Johnson and Sally Ride. We’re every immigrant and entrepreneur from Boston to Austin to Silicon Valley racing to shape a better world. And over the past seven years, we’ve nurtured that spirit. 

We’ve protected an open internet, and taken bold new steps to get more students and low-income Americans online. We’ve launched next-generation manufacturing hubs, and online tools that give an entrepreneur everything he or she needs to start a business in a single day. 

But we can do so much more. Last year, Vice President Biden said that with a new moonshot, America can cure cancer. Last month, he worked with this Congress to give scientists at the National Institutes of Health the strongest resources they’ve had in over a decade. Tonight, I’m announcing a new national effort to get it done. And because he’s gone to the mat for all of us, on so many issues over the past forty years, I’m putting Joe in charge of Mission Control. For the loved ones we’ve all lost, for the family we can still save, let’s make America the country that cures cancer once and for all.

Medical research is critical. We need the same level of commitment when it comes to developing clean energy sources.

Look, if anybody still wants to dispute the science around climate change, have at it. You’ll be pretty lonely, because you’ll be debating our military, most of America’s business leaders, the majority of the American people, almost the entire scientific community, and 200 nations around the world who agree it’s a problem and intend to solve it. 

But even if the planet wasn’t at stake; even if 2014 wasn’t the warmest year on record – until 2015 turned out even hotter – why would we want to pass up the chance for American businesses to produce and sell the energy of the future?

Seven years ago, we made the single biggest investment in clean energy in our history. Here are the results. In fields from Iowa to Texas, wind power is now cheaper than dirtier, conventional power. On rooftops from Arizona to New York, solar is saving Americans tens of millions of dollars a year on their energy bills, and employs more Americans than coal – in jobs that pay better than average. We’re taking steps to give homeowners the freedom to generate and store their own energy – something environmentalists and Tea Partiers have teamed up to support. Meanwhile, we’ve cut our imports of foreign oil by nearly sixty percent, and cut carbon pollution more than any other country on Earth. 

Gas under two bucks a gallon ain’t bad, either.

Now we’ve got to accelerate the transition away from dirty energy. Rather than subsidize the past, we should invest in the future – especially in communities that rely on fossil fuels. That’s why I’m going to push to change the way we manage our oil and coal resources, so that they better reflect the costs they impose on taxpayers and our planet. That way, we put money back into those communities and put tens of thousands of Americans to work building a 21st century transportation system.

None of this will happen overnight, and yes, there are plenty of entrenched interests who want to protect the status quo. But the jobs we’ll create, the money we’ll save, and the planet we’ll preserve – that’s the kind of future our kids and grandkids deserve.

Climate change is just one of many issues where our security is linked to the rest of the world. And that’s why the third big question we have to answer is how to keep America safe and strong without either isolating ourselves or trying to nation-build everywhere there’s a problem.

I told you earlier all the talk of America’s economic decline is political hot air. Well, so is all the rhetoric you hear about our enemies getting stronger and America getting weaker. The United States of America is the most powerful nation on Earth. Period. It’s not even close. We spend more on our military than the next eight nations combined. Our troops are the finest fighting force in the history of the world. No nation dares to attack us or our allies because they know that’s the path to ruin. Surveys show our standing around the world is higher than when I was elected to this office, and when it comes to every important international issue, people of the world do not look to Beijing or Moscow to lead – they call us.

As someone who begins every day with an intelligence briefing, I know this is a dangerous time. But that’s not because of diminished American strength or some looming superpower. In today’s world, we’re threatened less by evil empires and more by failing states. The Middle East is going through a transformation that will play out for a generation, rooted in conflicts that date back millennia. Economic headwinds blow from a Chinese economy in transition. Even as their economy contracts, Russia is pouring resources to prop up Ukraine and Syria – states they see slipping away from their orbit. And the international system we built after World War II is now struggling to keep pace with this new reality.

It’s up to us to help remake that system. And that means we have to set priorities.

Priority number one is protecting the American people and going after terrorist networks. Both al Qaeda and now ISIL pose a direct threat to our people, because in today’s world, even a handful of terrorists who place no value on human life, including their own, can do a lot of damage. They use the Internet to poison the minds of individuals inside our country; they undermine our allies.

But as we focus on destroying ISIL, over-the-top claims that this is World War III just play into their hands. Masses of fighters on the back of pickup trucks and twisted souls plotting in apartments or garages pose an enormous danger to civilians and must be stopped. But they do not threaten our national existence. That’s the story ISIL wants to tell; that’s the kind of propaganda they use to recruit. We don’t need to build them up to show that we’re serious, nor do we need to push away vital allies in this fight by echoing the lie that ISIL is representative of one of the world’s largest religions. We just need to call them what they are – killers and fanatics who have to be rooted out, hunted down, and destroyed.

That’s exactly what we are doing. For more than a year, America has led a coalition of more than 60 countries to cut off ISIL’s financing, disrupt their plots, stop the flow of terrorist fighters, and stamp out their vicious ideology. With nearly 10,000 air strikes, we are taking out their leadership, their oil, their training camps, and their weapons. We are training, arming, and supporting forces who are steadily reclaiming territory in Iraq and Syria. 

If this Congress is serious about winning this war, and wants to send a message to our troops and the world, you should finally authorize the use of military force against ISIL. Take a vote. But the American people should know that with or without Congressional action, ISIL will learn the same lessons as terrorists before them. If you doubt America’s commitment – or mine – to see that justice is done, ask Osama bin Laden. Ask the leader of al Qaeda in Yemen, who was taken out last year, or the perpetrator of the Benghazi attacks, who sits in a prison cell. When you come after Americans, we go after you. It may take time, but we have long memories, and our reach has no limit.

Our foreign policy must be focused on the threat from ISIL and al Qaeda, but it can’t stop there. For even without ISIL, instability will continue for decades in many parts of the world – in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in parts of Central America, Africa and Asia. Some of these places may become safe havens for new terrorist networks; others will fall victim to ethnic conflict, or famine, feeding the next wave of refugees. The world will look to us to help solve these problems, and our answer needs to be more than tough talk or calls to carpet bomb civilians. That may work as a TV sound bite, but it doesn’t pass muster on the world stage.

We also can’t try to take over and rebuild every country that falls into crisis. That’s not leadership; that’s a recipe for quagmire, spilling American blood and treasure that ultimately weakens us. It’s the lesson of Vietnam, of Iraq – and we should have learned it by now. 

Fortunately, there’s a smarter approach, a patient and disciplined strategy that uses every element of our national power. It says America will always act, alone if necessary, to protect our people and our allies; but on issues of global concern, we will mobilize the world to work with us, and make sure other countries pull their own weight. 

That’s our approach to conflicts like Syria, where we’re partnering with local forces and leading international efforts to help that broken society pursue a lasting peace.

That’s why we built a global coalition, with sanctions and principled diplomacy, to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. As we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program, shipped out its uranium stockpile, and the world has avoided another war. 

That’s how we stopped the spread of Ebola in West Africa. Our military, our doctors, and our development workers set up the platform that allowed other countries to join us in stamping out that epidemic. 

That’s how we forged a Trans-Pacific Partnership to open markets, protect workers and the environment, and advance American leadership in Asia. It cuts 18,000 taxes on products Made in America, and supports more good jobs. With TPP, China doesn’t set the rules in that region, we do. You want to show our strength in this century? Approve this agreement. Give us the tools to enforce it. 

Fifty years of isolating Cuba had failed to promote democracy, setting us back in Latin America. That’s why we restored diplomatic relations, opened the door to travel and commerce, and positioned ourselves to improve the lives of the Cuban people. You want to consolidate our leadership and credibility in the hemisphere? Recognize that the Cold War is over. Lift the embargo.

American leadership in the 21st century is not a choice between ignoring the rest of the world – except when we kill terrorists; or occupying and rebuilding whatever society is unraveling. Leadership means a wise application of military power, and rallying the world behind causes that are right. It means seeing our foreign assistance as part of our national security, not charity. When we lead nearly 200 nations to the most ambitious agreement in history to fight climate change – that helps vulnerable countries, but it also protects our children. When we help Ukraine defend its democracy, or Colombia resolve a decades-long war, that strengthens the international order we depend upon. When we help African countries feed their people and care for the sick, that prevents the next pandemic from reaching our shores. Right now, we are on track to end the scourge of HIV/AIDS, and we have the capacity to accomplish the same thing with malaria – something I’ll be pushing this Congress to fund this year.

That’s strength. That’s leadership. And that kind of leadership depends on the power of our example. That is why I will keep working to shut down the prison at Guantanamo: it’s expensive, it’s unnecessary, and it only serves as a recruitment brochure for our enemies.

That’s why we need to reject any politics that targets people because of race or religion. This isn’t a matter of political correctness. It’s a matter of understanding what makes us strong. The world respects us not just for our arsenal; it respects us for our diversity and our openness and the way we respect every faith. His Holiness, Pope Francis, told this body from the very spot I stand tonight that “to imitate the hatred and violence of tyrants and murderers is the best way to take their place.” When politicians insult Muslims, when a mosque is vandalized, or a kid bullied, that doesn’t make us safer. That’s not telling it like it is. It’s just wrong. It diminishes us in the eyes of the world. It makes it harder to achieve our goals. And it betrays who we are as a country.

“We the People.” Our Constitution begins with those three simple words, words we’ve come to recognize mean all the people, not just some; words that insist we rise and fall together. That brings me to the fourth, and maybe the most important thing I want to say tonight.

The future we want – opportunity and security for our families; a rising standard of living and a sustainable, peaceful planet for our kids – all that is within our reach. But it will only happen if we work together. It will only happen if we can have rational, constructive debates.

It will only happen if we fix our politics.

A better politics doesn’t mean we have to agree on everything. This is a big country, with different regions and attitudes and interests. That’s one of our strengths, too. Our Founders distributed power between states and branches of government, and expected us to argue, just as they did, over the size and shape of government, over commerce and foreign relations, over the meaning of liberty and the imperatives of security.

But democracy does require basic bonds of trust between its citizens. It doesn’t work if we think the people who disagree with us are all motivated by malice, or that our political opponents are unpatriotic. Democracy grinds to a halt without a willingness to compromise; or when even basic facts are contested, and we listen only to those who agree with us. Our public life withers when only the most extreme voices get attention. Most of all, democracy breaks down when the average person feels their voice doesn’t matter; that the system is rigged in favor of the rich or the powerful or some narrow interest.

Too many Americans feel that way right now. It’s one of the few regrets of my presidency – that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better. There’s no doubt a president with the gifts of Lincoln or Roosevelt might have better bridged the divide, and I guarantee I’ll keep trying to be better so long as I hold this office.

But, my fellow Americans, this cannot be my task – or any President’s – alone. There are a whole lot of folks in this chamber who would like to see more cooperation, a more elevated debate in Washington, but feel trapped by the demands of getting elected. I know; you’ve told me. And if we want a better politics, it’s not enough to just change a Congressman or a Senator or even a President; we have to change the system to reflect our better selves.

We have to end the practice of drawing our congressional districts so that politicians can pick their voters, and not the other way around. We have to reduce the influence of money in our politics, so that a handful of families and hidden interests can’t bankroll our elections – and if our existing approach to campaign finance can’t pass muster in the courts, we need to work together to find a real solution. We’ve got to make voting easier, not harder, and modernize it for the way we live now. And over the course of this year, I intend to travel the country to push for reforms that do.

But I can’t do these things on my own. Changes in our political process – in not just who gets elected but how they get elected – that will only happen when the American people demand it. It will depend on you. That’s what’s meant by a government of, by, and for the people. 

What I’m asking for is hard. It’s easier to be cynical; to accept that change isn’t possible, and politics is hopeless, and to believe that our voices and actions don’t matter. But if we give up now, then we forsake a better future. Those with money and power will gain greater control over the decisions that could send a young soldier to war, or allow another economic disaster, or roll back the equal rights and voting rights that generations of Americans have fought, even died, to secure. As frustration grows, there will be voices urging us to fall back into tribes, to scapegoat fellow citizens who don’t look like us, or pray like us, or vote like we do, or share the same background.

We can’t afford to go down that path. It won’t deliver the economy we want, or the security we want, but most of all, it contradicts everything that makes us the envy of the world. 

So, my fellow Americans, whatever you may believe, whether you prefer one party or no party, our collective future depends on your willingness to uphold your obligations as a citizen. To vote. To speak out. To stand up for others, especially the weak, especially the vulnerable, knowing that each of us is only here because somebody, somewhere, stood up for us. To stay active in our public life so it reflects the goodness and decency and optimism that I see in the American people every single day. 

It won’t be easy. Our brand of democracy is hard. But I can promise that a year from now, when I no longer hold this office, I’ll be right there with you as a citizen – inspired by those voices of fairness and vision, of grit and good humor and kindness that have helped America travel so far. Voices that help us see ourselves not first and foremost as black or white or Asian or Latino, not as gay or straight, immigrant or native born; not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans first, bound by a common creed. Voices Dr. King believed would have the final word – voices of unarmed truth and unconditional love. 

They’re out there, those voices. They don’t get a lot of attention, nor do they seek it, but they are busy doing the work this country needs doing.

I see them everywhere I travel in this incredible country of ours. I see you. I know you’re there. You’re the reason why I have such incredible confidence in our future. Because I see your quiet, sturdy citizenship all the time. 

I see it in the worker on the assembly line who clocked extra shifts to keep his company open, and the boss who pays him higher wages to keep him on board.

I see it in the Dreamer who stays up late to finish her science project, and the teacher who comes in early because he knows she might someday cure a disease.

I see it in the American who served his time, and dreams of starting over – and the business owner who gives him that second chance. The protester determined to prove that justice matters, and the young cop walking the beat, treating everybody with respect, doing the brave, quiet work of keeping us safe.

I see it in the soldier who gives almost everything to save his brothers, the nurse who tends to him ‘til he can run a marathon, and the community that lines up to cheer him on.

It’s the son who finds the courage to come out as who he is, and the father whose love for that son overrides everything he’s been taught.

I see it in the elderly woman who will wait in line to cast her vote as long as she has to; the new citizen who casts his for the first time; the volunteers at the polls who believe every vote should count, because each of them in different ways know how much that precious right is worth.

That’s the America I know. That’s the country we love. Clear-eyed. Big-hearted. Optimistic that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word. That’s what makes me so hopeful about our future. Because of you. I believe in you. That’s why I stand here confident that the State of our Union is strong.

Thank you, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.