Friday 12 December 2014

December 12, 2014 South Front News (video): US tanks, APCs, Humvees Roll 300 km from the Russian Border



1) Ukraine’s 2015 military budget to double
2) Ukrainian arms cache seized in Donetsk
3) West's attempt to distort reality to fail
4) US tanks, APCs, Humvees roll 300 km from the Russian border

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Ukraine is Creating an Army of 250,000 People and a Cemetery for 250,000 Graves

Julia May for Vest-Ukr.com

On December 12, 2014, at the morning session of the Verkhovna Rada Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said that the 2015 state budget of Ukraine allocated more than a billion hryvnia for the purchase of special communication system for Ukrainian Armed Forces, adding that overall 50 billion hryvnia was allocated for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"Last year's budget for UAH amounted to 15 billion and 11 billion from the Reserve Fund," - he recalled. The modernization of the armed forces of Ukraine will cost 401 million hryvnia, the purchase of new equipment - 6.45 billion hryvnia.

The Defense Ministry also plans to work on the creation of new divisions, units and special operations forces.

Until the end of the year, in his words, the entire personnel of the Ministry of Defense will be recertified, including recertification of personnel at the Intelligence Directorate.

Previously Poltorak said about the need for the next wave of mobilization.

The forces of the Ukrainian army will be doubled next year, announced Poltorak.

According to him, last year the number of troops was 130 thousand, in 2015 the number is planned to increase up to 250 thousand troops.

Kristina Rus: Ukrainian government is very prudent, at the same time creating a cemetery for 250,000 graves

Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com

Ukraine is creating a cemetery for 250,000 graves

Politnews.net

On December 10, 2014, the allocation of 80 hectares of agricultural land in the Dnepropetrovsk region for a cemetery for those killed in the ATO was discussed at the meeting of the Administration of the President of Ukraine.

"The fourth wave of mobilization is beginning in Ukraine,"- said the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak.

On this occasion, the Ukrainian government decided to finally take care of the thousands of bodies of soldiers and officers, which remain in Donbass region, abandoned and unburied.

On December 10, at the administration of the President of Ukraine, Chairman of the Parliamentary Health Committee Olga Bogomolets held a meeting on issues related to the identification, transportation and burial of the dead soldiers.

One of the key issues of the meeting was the establishment of a cemetery for soldiers who died in the Civil War in Donbass. The losses of the Ukrainian army are such that the authorities are asking as many as 80 hectares of agricultural land in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

80 acres is 800 000 square meters of land.

This is 112 Olympic football fields.

If we proceed from the fact that the standard grave covers an area of 3 square meters (2m x 1.5m), it turns out that 80 hectares can accommodate 267 thousand graves. Add the area for the walkways, roads, and it becomes clear that the need for graves in the administration of the President is 250 thousand graves.

Ceasefire, you say? No. The government is preparing for a brutal war. And the more passionate and wild characters will perish in this war, the greater the chances of the government to stay in power.

This cemetery in the center of the country will become a shrine of nationalist propaganda: children will come here on field trips, volunteers will collect money for fences, Biden will come to lay a flower on the tomb of the unknown soldier.

Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com

"To Mariupol!"


According to Azov battalion, the column from Donetsk Republic shown in video below has entered Pavlopol, which is 10 kilometers from Mariupol. 

Beefing up argumentation for Minsk negotiations?   








Thursday 11 December 2014

Novorossia Artillery Withdrawn Due to Ceasefire Can Return to Positions in 30 Minutes

Rusvesna

Armed vehicles remain on positions, withdrawn artillery can come back in 30 minutes

Militiaman "Cadet" talked about the withdrawal of the heavy artillery of Novorossia from the frontline:

"Yes, we began to withdraw the heavy artillery. Removed MRLS Grad and Hurricane and other artillery. Remaining - all armored vehicles, infantry and mortars.

Command ordered all units of NAF in the event if UAF does not pull out its heavy equipment within 5 days, to return to positions. In the case of an attack - to open fire at the enemy approaching positions, immediately to return the artillery into place.

The equipment already withdrawn can come back to positions in 30 minutes for MRLS, and an hour for the rest. The military situation - after Kolesnikovo there was no more fighting. The militia and UAF continued to dig in.

UAF has also brought reinforcements. According to our information at Cchastinskaya and Stanichno-Luganskaya formations the enemy concentrated all reserves of these groups directly on the line of contact. But in this area UAF and the militia have approximately equal number of troops.

And in terms of firepower and morale militia surpasses them. During the previous "ceasfire" ukry lost up to 700 people injured and dozens killed, and up to 95 units of armored vehicles in this area".

Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com

NATO TV: There are No Fascists in Ukraine. South Front: Let's Help NATO Find Fascists in Ukraine!

Let's help NATO find fascists in Ukraine. Our answer to NATO movie "Ukraine: where are all the fascists?"

On November, 28th a video appeared on the official NATO channel on Ukraine: Where all the fascists are?, in which Paul King could not find any fascists in Ukraine. Following the highly evaluated NATO video, let’s convince ourselves that there are really no fascists in Ukraine.

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Is Ukraine Preparing for a Nuclear False Flag to Frame Russia?

Russia's State Advisor, Director of The Institute of Problems of Globalization, Doctor of Economics, author Mikhail Delyagin tells Anton Chelyshev on Komsomolskaya Pravda radio that Ukraine is preparing a new large-scale anti-Russian provocation. Below is the excerpt from a 40-minute interview, published on December 11, 2014.

The rest of the Russian text of the interview can be found on Delyagin's personal website Delyagin.ru.


Chelyshev:

- Hello, Mikhail Gennadievich. Are we going to discuss President Putin's adress?

Delyagin:

- The address of  President Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly is extremely important. And, of course, it would be necessary to discuss it in the first place. Moreover, it gives us some quite certain distinct new perspectives. After Crimea I have great respect for the President. I had different stages of my assessment of the President, but after Crimea I have no doubts. But, unfortunately, as American Secretary of Defense once said -"there are more important things in the world". Today, I hope you listened to this address and you can always read, listen to the experts. I want to talk about things and information of a unique character, unfortunately. It is of a pretty nasty character and threatens us all very much.

Chelyshev:

- What kind of information?

Delyagin:

- It is connected with geopolitics. Why did Ukrainian crisis happen, what is the fundamental reason? Why did Americans get into it so deep? The Europeans got there because of the assets, as the Germans in 1941 - to take more land, factories, power lines and other existing businesses - ports, mines. The Americans got in because in the world objectively, there are three global players: the US, China and the EU. But the European Union is independent and a player equal to America and China only in case of cooperation with Russia. Not integration, of course, but at least close and tight relationship. The destruction of EU cooperation with Russia eliminates it as an independent participant in global competition, which is what we see now. The Americans did not get into this to get Russia. With all my patriotism, 2.5 percent of global GDP at market prices, up to 3 %, almost 4 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity, it is not something that plays a global role. The global role is affected when instead of three actors in the global competition, if you tear the European Union and Russia, only two will remain. The EU will be  no more. And this was the strategic objective of the Americans, which, unfortunately, neither we nor the Europeans realized. We possibly realized, but we were focused on a local task - how to appease Yanukovych. How could we explain to him that he should take money from us, than give it to the Europeans.

As a result, Americans have achieved outstanding success. We are in a real cold war. Ukraine is in a hot civil war. The talk about some sort of a ceasefire... let's not bring out the horrible details, but peaceful civilians are killed every day. But the problem isn't solved. Because despite the fact that the Russian Federation did not invade Ukraine, did not get involved in the war, despite the fact that we turned ourselves into a trash can for spitting, despite the aggressiveness of the European Union, the European Union has very strong sentiments in favor of not quarreling with the Russians. The mood is the following: the Russians may be right or wrong, but they are big, and we need to trade with someone. It is cool to trade with them. If they are wrong, well, we will believe our political bosses, let us trade with them from a distance. Why break up the relationship. But Europe suffers from many ailments. It suffers from our poverty too. Because if only 40% of our tourists now travel to Europe from a year ago, this is a very severe blow to many tourist economies of Europe. And they think it's a result of their sanctions, and not a result of our stupidity. And there is a very strong mood to restore relations with Russia, whether we're right or wrong.

Here is what happened in Milan recently. Our delegation of businessmen in suits and ties, after difficult negotiations, not very successful, were looking for an authentic restaurant. Where local Italians eat. Found this restaurant, went inside. There is a sudden moment of silence, because the guys are in suits. Who are they? This is a local neighborhood restaurant. The guys decided to relax, asked if there is any Russian vodka by chance? They were  asked: you are probably Russians? Well, Yes, we are Russians. Whispers. Vodka comes out on the house. But that's not the point. After the whispers subsided in about five minutes the locals stood up and applauded. And chanted: "Putin! Russia!" This lasted for about five minutes. Then everyone went about their business, not to bother the Russians. But this would be unimaginable even a year ago. Or two years ago. People in Europe feel that their rulers have sold them to the Americans. What has never happened before. Well, almost never. In the 1950's, maybe it did.

Because democracy, albeit perverted, is still preserved, this pressure seeps upward. And the task of the Americans - to finally rip Russia from Europe - is not solved. Europe does not want to switch to the American shale gas - it is more expensive and it is unstable. Europe likes Russian pipeline gas. Europe does not want to abandon Russia as a market for selling cars and wine. It doesn't want to destroy the relationship. The brilliant affair with the Malaysian Boeing failed. Nothing came of it. Now the British can demonstrate after some time the replaced fragments of the Boeing with fragments of Buk with a factory number stuck in them. But no one will believe this anymore. Because everyone remembers how the anti-Russian hysteria had stopped, as soon as the Russian General staff began to ask questions. It just halted all of a sudden. And this was the answer to who shot down the Boeing in reality.

The sequel is coming. there will be another provocation. And what will the next provocation be? We got some information. Moreover, first the information came from former Novorossia, from Kharkov. And this information I was not very inclined to trust, because Ukraine is embraced in a mass psychosis, and it's saturated with rumors. But then came an indirect confirmation of this information from the West. I really hope that it's a fake. I really hope that this is hostile propaganda. But you know, better be safe than sorry. The point is: Ukrainian army goes on the offensive. Yes, it doesn't have the strength for the offensive and the level of demoralization is monstrous. Therefore it pretends to attack. Valiant soldiers carry out a massive artillery preparation. And all the Western media, not to mention Ukrainian, shout in unison about the liberation of another 300 square meters of Donetsk airport, for example. After that a tactical nuclear warhead explodes in the zone of the offensive of the Ukrainian army. Then everyone shouts that the monstrous Russia used nuclear weapons. Conversations about changing our military doctrine are moving in that direction. The liberal intelligentsia is already hysterically screaming about it. This is that which will be extremely difficult to clean up from. That which our military is not capable of, in principle, even theoretically. And that which is quite normal for the Americans, because both times of the use of nuclear weapons in the history of mankind it was them. To use it the third time is not so difficult.

Moreover, there were reports about wonderful Estonian port Paldiski - former Baltic, there is now a large warehouse of radioactive waste from all over Estonia, may be even from across the Baltic States. Spent x-ray medical devices and so on. And there NATO, U.S. military reportedly delivered some cargo, which also radiates, but in no case is it a waste to be disposed of. Just that the stock of radioactive waste is used as a disguise for the background. Similarly, there are a few other strange stories. For example, there have been some experts from the private military companies in the beginning of the conflict. And the man (his name and last name are known) was placed in the deepest quarantine due to radiation sickness. Apparently, he died there. Former father of chemical weapons is a bit of a different story, but under Saddam Hussein, the man who created chemical weapons, went to negotiations with representatives of the European Union in the center of Kiev, and there in the center of Kiev he was assassinated. Democracy, who would pay attention? But such episodes are very disturbing. Now the scheme is as follows. Unable to explain to anyone that Malaysian Boeing was hit by damned Russian animals, damned Russian barbarians. So we will explain to everyone that the damned Russian barbarians had used nuclear weapons against defenseless Ukrainian army.

Chelyshev:

- If possible, do you have information about how this warhead would be delivered to the zone of the Ukrainian army?

Delyagin:

- No. Understand, I am not the competent authority. I just don't know. In principle, it could be a cruise missile that will fly somewhere from afar, just on a low flight, below all of the locators. This could be a fixed delivery.

Chelyshev:

- Is the follow up script known?

Delyagin:

- It's very simple. They all begin to shout, as we have just seen with the story of Malaysian Boeing that Putin is personally to blame. Actually no officer in the Russian Federation, no general of the Russian Federation, no last idiot in the Russian Federation can deploy a tactical nuclear weapon without the direct order from the Supreme Commander. After that all the liberal intelligentsia of the Russian Federation in unison begins to apologize to the West for the despicable criminal regime. We just went through this with the Malaysian Boeing. With all these Makareviches and others. Next - the regime is declared criminal, all relations are broken, including banking transactions. And here no European politician, at least from Germany, from France, and others, will be able to say: no, guys, they certainly did something not very good, but we will still continue to buy their gas, because it is advantageous. Because they will be shown Ukrainian children burnt with radiation disease and all that is necessary to present in such cases. And this is not Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Because then the Americans were the winners. Now we will be the losers. That's the difference. Global media is tightly controlled by the Americans. I think that Russia Today will be banned in all Western countries and in Japan, and all countries that want to trade with the West and Japan, just on demand. It is quite possible, which seems theoretically impossible. Given the infinite cynicism of our American, as many say - "colleagues".

Given that Mr. Obama now, if not a lame rooster, anyway lame duck in the American classification. Because he has a hostile Parliament. His power is very limited. And he needs to do something, just to survive, not to be eaten slowly and piece by piece. He has to radically change the situation. Poroshenko is in a similar situation. He tried to radically change the situation on November 1st. There almost began a large-scale frontal attack. The militia, as far as I can tell, knew about it in advance. So a preventive artillery preparation took place, and in some cases there was no one left to attack. A mini-Kursk happened. It is unpopular to talk about it here, and in the West, and in Ukraine. Everywhere for different reasons. It's like what happened to the Georgian special forces during the war in 2008? Also no one likes to remember that. But this provocation can have terrible consequences, not just for the history of Russia, not just for Europe but for the whole humanity. I coined the phrase, I loved it and was very proud of, I kept saying that they tried to ignite a third world war in Ukraine, but it didn't work out, because the firewood was wet. Some people who are fighting and dying there were offended. But from the perspective of a third world war it is true - the firewood is wet. It's not an Islamic state.

But suddenly there is a prospect that it will still be able to ignite. Because it is an absolute crime. And no evidence will be left. This is not Malaysian Boeing, from which there are three tons of cargo left. And everyone walked around and took pictures. There will be nothing to photograph. And to prove that it's not us, will be impossible. Western representatives under the guise of Russian journalists are sitting in Donetsk and intensely searching for the Russian military. Were looking during the peak of hostilities. We know these people. Top professionals and with that professionally absolutely debilitated people. They don't take care of themselves and don't know what to look for. They sat there during all the hot months and saw nothing. But it is not a proof for anyone. And for themselves it is not a proof. They say: we do not see anything, but we know that they are there. No one cares about the reality. They invented the myth that Russia is to blame, and they work with this myth to the fullest. And impose sanctions on the next day after Russia forces to sign a peace agreement. Violate these peace agreements, shelling cities, carrying out genocide on the eve of the winter. And Russia is to blame. This is normal.

But when this position is supported by a tactical nuclear explosion, gentlemen, we will not clear ourselves. It will be impossible to defend. Given the proportion of liberal propaganda in Russia. Given the idiotism of the liberal propaganda in Russia. Given the influence of liberal institutions in the state authorities. Given the helplessness of people who would like to live in Russia, before the liberals who work here just on a rotational basis. Sorry, this will be a catastrophic situation. And it is unlikely to happen right now, in mid-December. Because for a shock value it must happen on a Holy day. So I think that the threat exists before Christmas. The strongest threat. I may be wrong on the details. Because this is an indirect data. I didn't hold the candle, I have no blood writings and I don't have agents, to bring you hard evidence. And moreover, I sometimes make mistakes with dates. I thought a coup by Ukrainian Nazis will happen on the first day of the Olympics, but it happened on the last day of the Olympics. Colleagues, I made a mistake, it happens.


Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com

Shootout at the Port of Mariupol - Who Will the Port Go To?

Rusvesna

On December 9 at 10.30 armed men entered the Mariupol port administration building. A reporter was not allowed inside by a policeman and members of port security.

From our sources in law enforcement agencies we learned that representatives of the regional Police Department and the Department of Investigation of Economic Crimes were on the scene.

The building was blocked, port employees were not allowed to go inside and those inside could not leave.

At 11.51 armed men left the office of Port Authority. 6 people in camouflage exited from the side door and left in two vehicles.

Security opened the front doors and let out the people who were in the building.

According to the staff, armed men did not allow them to leave the office for about 2 hours.  The port authorities declined to comment.

The head of regional police Vyacheslav Abroskin reported that police has nothing to do with the events at the port, and advised to seek clarification from regional prosecutor's office.

And from the regional prosecutor's office we were sent back to the regional police.

The circle has closed, and it became clear that something is fishy.

According to some reports, not yet confirmed, there was a shoot out between the Azov battalion  and the police at the port.

"Police discovered some fraud at the Port Authority. Girls were dismissed from work, they have a separate building. But now a shoot out began between the "cops" and "Azov". Workers are hiding from random bullets around the territory. It's unbelievable," - said one of the employees of the Port Authority,  Lyudmila.

Apparently, redistribution of property is gaining momentum in Ukraine. The port of Mariupol, which is officially a state property and is the largest in Azov, until recently was controlled by Rinat Akhmetov. Looks like the struggle for the port is entering a decisive phase. According to Lyudmila, different sections of port infrastructure are actively changing owners.

"At the office the rumors are that Lyashko already owns two docks. Although I don't believe that he personally controls something. Someone is hiding behind his name", - says Lyudmila.

Yulia Tymoshenko, during her days as prime minister had repeatedly tried to privatize the port of Mariupol, may be the wind blows from there...

Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com

Wednesday 10 December 2014

Russia and Turkey’s Gas Deal Can Save Europe and the World

Joaquin Flores is an American expat living in Belgrade. He is a full-time analyst at the Center for Syncretic Studies, a public geostrategic think-tank. His expertise encompasses Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and he has a strong proficiency in Middle East affairs. Flores is particularly adept at analyzing the psychology of the propaganda wars. He is a political scientist educated at California State University. In the US, he worked for a number of years as a labor union organizer, chief negotiator, and strategist for a major trade union federation. He presently serves as the Europe wide coordinator for New Resistance, a US based movement. Flores regularly appears on Press TV to analyze relevant news items relating to Eurasia. He has been published at Oriental Review and the Journal of Eurasian Affairs, among others.

The status of South Stream and the newly announced Russia-Turkey gas deal is much more than it seems.  It is primarily about putting the brakes on what has slowly been developing into the next world war.

This new deal may also represent a serious culmination of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian efforts to realign the entire bandwidth between the Adriatic Sea and India.  This has ramifications not only for the EU, Bulgaria, and Turkey, but also Syria, Egypt, Israel, Iran, China and most of Latin America.  Its effects reach far beyond the scope of this report, and includes currency wars, and military alliances.

Thus, this turn of events may be massive, and the culmination of the success which Iraq, Iran, and Syria have had, with their allies, in rolling back ISIS.  Additionally, this comes on the heels of the big changes in Egypt, which saw Turkey’s main ally in the war on Syria removed.  It also represents a major revival of the Russian effort to build an alternative route to the line going through Ukraine.  That line has been the subject of numerous problems as the Ukrainians had been difficult partners.  The recent outbreak of hostilities within Ukraine has made them an even less reliable partner, pushing the need to speed up the process of an alternative Russian gas route into high gear.

Let us begun with the reality as it has been presented.  On December 1st, Russia declared to the world that it had dumped the South Stream project because the European Union had decided that it did not want it.

The EU can be said to have decided this simply because it placed too many barriers on the project, mostly surrounding two factors.

The first factor was a constraint placed on the project by the Third Energy Package (TEP), which was passed in the EU in 2009.  This was done much after the South Stream project had already been proposed in 2007, and the tentative agreement already inked.  This change of conditions after the fact means that Russia has not abrogated any of its commitments, either morally or legally.  This is important in terms of Russia’s other numerous important trading and strategic partners, both in the region, and in the world.  No one will see that Russia pulls the plug on deals it makes.

In fact, Russia showed both good faith and due diligence in all spheres of the South Stream negotiations and construction process.  The initial terms of South Stream were made under conditions prior to the latest round of restrictions placed upon Russia, on top of the Third Energy Package.  In other considerations, as the project evolved, some elements of the TEP were interpreted in a way which still made the South Stream a viable project.  This means that the signatories to the South Stream tentative agreement cannot be held retroactively accountable for newer restrictions to the execution or workability of said agreement, which were unforeseeable at the time of the deal.  As the deal evolved over time, the manner by which the restrictions imposed by TEP were interpreted, also figured into the entire project.

The second factor is that Bulgaria had been under extraordinary pressure to conform to EU dictates in this arena.  The Bulgarian reluctance to buck EU dictates was understood by Putin, which is reflected in the exact words that were used to describe the failure on the Bulgarian end.  By and large, blame was placed on the EU for pressuring Bulgaria.  At the level of diplomacy, this gives the Bulgarians an important out, which will figure into this analysis, shortly.  Simultaneously, given how power is popularly understood, the Bulgarian government is being held by Bulgarians – who mostly wanted this project for a range of obvious reasons – as being primarily responsible.  The Bulgarians were also thinking they had an option, which was snapped away from them with this Russian-Turkish deal.  This will also figure into the scope of things to come, that we will describe.

putin1
Various news agencies around the world ran with the simple headline that Putin had cancelled South-Stream.  Some agencies and analysis groups viewed this as a show of Russian weakness, and others of Russian strength.  On the balance, just looking at the headlines as wholly descriptive, we can determine that Russia has acted out of strength.  They are actually leaving room for flexibility, and has hinted at conditions for workability.

We are justified in saying this for three main reasons.

The first is that Putin made the statement, it was not made by Europe or for him by others.  This means that he was not responding to a question or unforeseen circumstance, but rather this was a calculated pronouncement and made at a time of his choosing.  The words were chosen quite carefully.  His exact words must be examined.

“Bearing in mind the fact that we have not yet received Bulgaria’s permission, we think Russia in such conditions cannot continue this project,”

He continued on,

“If Europe doesn’t want to realize this, then it means it won’t be realized. We will redirect the flow of our energy resources to other regions of the world.”

The first clause of the first quote, uses the word ‘yet’.  Alternate words that would eliminate any room for consideration would have been ‘Bearing in mind the fact that we will never receive Bulgaria’s permission.’.

In order to clarify the open nature that is communicated here, he says ‘in such conditions’.  That is, under these conditions, but not other conditions.  In other conditions, logically if follows, perhaps something is possible.  But, also, perhaps not.

In the second quote, he uses the word ‘If’.  Not ‘Since’, or ‘Because’, but ‘If’.  In short, “if” they don’t want to realize this, it won’t be realized.  If they do want this realized, then perhaps it can be realized. Or not.

Also in this second quote is a statement which runs counter to the actual concept behind the Russian-Turkish gas deal.  Indeed it does aim to direct the flow to Europe, and not other regions of the world as such.  Recall that the Turkish hub is on the European side, near the Greek border.  Russia’s Ambassador to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov was clear when he said, “The gas pipeline thread may go in any direction from the Turkish hub,” [1]

These statements furthermore seem to align not only with developments in Ukraine, but also in Syria, which we will elaborate on here as well.  This also means that the statement ought to be viewed in light of how Russia makes its official statements, which are almost always multi-layered messages.
Tayyip-Erdogan
Secondly, most news stories and news analysis also somewhat correctly mentioned that Putin simultaneously had been in Ankara where he ironed out a deal with Erdogan.  Putin announced that he and Erdogan had come to terms on increasing the volume of the Blue-Stream pipeline to Turkey, and creating a new pipeline to Turkey.    It is chiefly important here to mention that such a high level meeting means that there is much more to this than an energy deal.

After all, if this was the sole subject of the meeting, such a deal could have been made between Gazprom’s Alexei Miller, or even one of his subordinates, and their Turkish counterparts.  However, importantly is the fact that Turkish energy minister Taner Yildiz has gone on record saying that final terms have not been made.  A number of outstanding issues remain, apparently, such as the price of gas.  Russia has offered a 6% discount, but Turkey may end up with two or three times greater than that figure (18%).  Still, Turkey has enabled Russia to make an important announcement at a critical time.   Turkey is no doubt aware that this relates to the two aforementioned conflicts.  Still relevant are the more banal and well publicized economic concerns concerning solvency in the EU as well, including decreased demand.

Additionally, Russia has publicly announced a $40-bn+ gas deal with India, as well as commitment to build nuclear power facilities.  Interestingly, India and Russia planned as far back as August, and perhaps April of 2014, to make this announcement in December.  This lends credence to the ‘strategic nature’ hypothesis of Putin’s well timed announcement on Turkey. ” An announcement on this initiative is expected to be made in December when the two leaders meet at the India-Russia annual summit to be held in New Delhi.” [2].

It is possible that an outstanding issue may relate to how Turkey’s previous plans can be combined with a new Russian-Turkish pipeline, which we will also explore in this report.

Third, as we will explain here in greater detail, this plan removes some of the alternate projects which Bulgaria and the EU thought they could rely on resurrecting, or further developing, in the final event of a Russian pull-out from the South Stream project.  Perhaps they had even intended for the Russians to further build in the Black Sea, only to pull the plug at a later phase, and ultimately have their efforts be for nothing, at great expense for Russia.

In truth, it is both too soon and too hard to tell what will happen exactly.

What Putin stressed was that the decision on whether or not this project can work was Europe’s to make.  This is an open door.

This seems to really contradict Putin’s statement about not having gas go to Europe.  Indeed, what we have actually been presented is, for the European project, a rebranded South Stream which now may also simply be combined with Nabucco.  This is because the new proposed line to Turkey goes to the European region of Turkish Thrace.

What we are to make of this depends on how we understand larger questions about the world we live in.

The reality of the ‘cancellation of South Stream’ is an example of a creation of a simulated hyper-reality to dissemble the actual reality of the situation.  This meme has now bounced off of all media walls, including alternative media and new media.  It has created an echo-chamber truth of its own.  We can understand that there are numerous targets of this weaponized bit of information, within the context of the information war at hand.

It should be no surprise that things are not what they seem.  We live in an increasingly complex world which witnesses an increasing sophistication in the multiple layers of meaning, which are embedded in official statements as they are reported.  We can say that the increasing bellicosity in general parallels the increased complexity of these messages.

The details of the proposed deal with Turkey are of some significance.   But we can only say with certainty, that what is important at this stage is that the plans seem credible insofar as they are workable.

Russia has officially gone on a media campaign to sell the workability of the Russian-Turkish Stream plan.  In a map provided to the public by RT, Russia’s English language state news agency, we can see clearly what the intended message is.

 gas_to_eu_final_3
Given that the main Russkaya CS plant which was built to handle the capacity of the South Stream line will still be used, and together with this, and the portions of pipe which have already been laid outside of Bulgaria that can still be used, the 5-bn Euros already spent on the project can be easily switched for similar use in a Russian-Turkish Stream scenario.  That alone foils one part of a possible US backed EU ploy to lure Russia into an ultimately dead-end project, which would have had the real potential of destabilizing the political structure inside of Russia itself.

If an actual Russian-Turkish stream is built, this will be the case, that Russian efforts have not gone to waste.  But what is most critical at this stage is that it adds credence to the Russian announcement. Looking at the map we can see that this is not simply a pipeline to Turkey.  It is not simply a different deal, now aimed at Turkey.

No, clearly this is a repackaged South Stream pipeline which now simply routes 150km south of the Bulgarian South Stream proposal, and through Turkey instead.  It also combines, now, elements of the Turkish Nabucco plan, as it now involves Greece and Macedonia, before it would turn north through Serbia, as well as having the potential to reconsider the Southern Corridor, as we will explore later in this report.

Perhaps under Russian consultation of this possibility, we can understand why Serbia began construction not in the south-east where it would have connected to the Bulgarian line, but rather in Novi Sad in the north.  This pipe laid in Novi Sad would be the route of either a South Stream or a slightly revised Nabucco in its new incarnation as the Russian-Turkish line.  Taken together, this new plan is the Russian-Turkish deal.

Indeed, we can see that with some modification, Russia and Turkey has proposed to combine the Nabucco and South Stream projects.  This was actually proposed by  Chief Executive Officer of Italian energy company EniPaolo Scaronione, the Italian project company involved in South Stream, at an early stage of negotiations.  While mainstream reporting gave a number of reasons why this proposal was initially rejected, what we know for certain is that the logistics and workability of such a plan to combine these two projects have been known about for several years [3].

It is interesting to consider then, that in retrospect, after all of the intrigue and blood spilt over this contest, that the Scaronione plan based on cooperation, collaboration, and peace, would be the one that actually worked out.  Moreover, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) which was sometimes a variation of the Nabucco plan, was also a variation of South Stream.

The more one looks at this, given the considerable weight which is given to the opinions of Scaronione, the more one must entertain the possibility that this Turkish reversal was in the works from the start.  Turkey always seemed to play its role with NATO against Syria, but in retrospect we can see that they did not ‘retaliate’ as expected when Syrian air defenses shot down the Turkish fighter jet, among other things [4].  They did not move against Syria as robustly as they could have, and they never entirely shut the door on Iran.  From the start, they did not freely allow just any mercenary or jihadi passage from Turkey into Syria, and even arrested (and captured caches) those connected to Libya (Belhaj) and Europe, funded by the Saudis and Qataris [5].

Iran was always looking for rapprochement with Turkey.  Iran wanted to be part of Nabucco, and made the offer as early as 2009 before the outbreak of hostilities, and now it looks like they will have that opportunity.  Indeed Erdogan told a gathering of Nabucco partner countries and regional countries in that same year, which included Iraq and Georgia: “We desire Iranian gas to be included in Nabucco when conditions allow,” [6]

But the US’s own special energy envoy Richard Morningstar was clear that Washington would not allow the Iranians to take part.  The strangeness of the US opposition may have escaped the average American reader, here.  Nabucco in no way involved the US directly, it is not a trans-Atlantic project.  This is, at the very most, a question which only ought to be of concern to those countries that will be involved in the production, transport, and consumption of the goods and services provided.

What the US offered instead to Turkey was that it should throw its international reputation into the wind, and facilitate an ultimately failed attempt to make ‘regime change’ in Syria.

It was always known that the Nabucco plan and the South Stream plan, while pitched as competing plans, really seem to be the same project, pitched differently, involving different power blocs, but interestingly, some of the same project companies.

In theory, then, nothing will be different for Serbia or the other countries along the pipeline.  In fact, this might even work better for Russia in that it now involves Turkey, Greece, and Macedonia as it re-routes to get back on its path which travels north through Serbia, into Hungary, Austria, etc.  For the consumer states, price wise, we should not expect a tremendous difference.  The discount that Turkey receives from Russia will allow for Turkish profitability with a savings that can be passed onto the consumer states.

This is not just about energy markets, but changing political and military partners.

Serbia, Austria, and Hungary are not only still on board with South Stream, or any other name this rose is called, but Hungary and Serbia have sworn off sanctions on Russia.  Hungary has even threatened to leave the EU over South Stream, and has also refused to become entangled again in a problematic IMF loan, now after having paid off its debt.  Russia is presently building the facility and military intelligence infrastructure, in what could soon become an actual military installation, in the south of Serbia near Nish. This is also an area where the South Stream, or by any other name, will travel through Serbia.  Serbia has not made significant progress in moving towards the EU.  It has still not recognized Kosovo, which is an unofficial condition for EU entry.  Other matters such as the above mentioned Russian military intelligence hub, the Putin’s presence and receiving the highest award at a distinctly Slavic style military parade, have emerged since, which have infuriated EU bureaucrats and NATO chiefs alike.

Thus, Hungary and Serbia, and because of details ironed out with OMV, Austria as well, are still on board with the project.  With very minor adjustments, this Russian-Turkish stream will be the same for them as the South Stream.  So, Russia’s December 1 announcement was not targeted at them.  In fact, taken together with the Russian-Turkish Stream, it is a big sigh of relief.

Rather, certain sections of the Bulgarian establishment are the immediate target of this announcement.  It is very important to create the all-round sense that Bulgaria can be left out of the equation, if it doesn’t do something decisive, and quickly.  If these matters were as simple to understand as the official statements made, then most people following the headlines would understand matters as they stand.  The truth, however, is more complicated.

In bargaining, to say that a deal is off the table is actually part of the bargaining process.  For those already familiar with this point, please forgive that we must belabor this for a moment. This is true all over the world, but is a particularly known bargaining tactic in Eurasia and the Middle-east.  It is accurate to include that this tactic is used in the far west, even where business culture tends to be based more on the proclivities and sensitivities of those in the Anglosphere.  Nevertheless, Slavs, Arabs,Turks, and Iranians do business differently.  Saying that a deal is off the table is neither rude, nor is it a deal breaker.  It is also not limited to business, but also informs other spheres of life such as romance and friendships.  It is an often critical part of the deal making process.  In a way which may seem counterintuitive to westerners, this actually builds trust.

Concepts and legal norms against things like regressive bargaining still exist, but this is not a case of that.  In the face of interesting, new, and creative interpretations of the Third Energy Package that was forced upon Europe under the influence of a semi-suicidal hypnotic trance, induced by the Trans-Atlantic power structure, Bulgaria reneged on its obligation to go forward with the plan.

And yet, to say that Bulgaria does not want to be included in a pipe-line project is not at all true.  Bulgaria still wants the plan, and on their end they insist there can still be one.  It was Europe that placed Bulgaria into this situation.  It was the EU that has interfered with Bulgaria’s electoral process, resulting in the present government.

Putin’s announcement was also aimed at the EU, and by extension, the US.

This is about calling Europe’s bluff.  Europe assumed that it could then change the legal framework of doing energy business with Europe by interpreting the Third Energy Package in new and creative ways, even after its own member states had bent over backwards to meet the already onerous and cumbersome restrictions, derived from the last round of sabotage.

Europe then assumed that it could act with increased hostility to Russia, involving themselves in the training, arming, and equipping of neo-nazis in Ukraine, and staging a coup to frustrate Ukraine’s integration into the Eurasian Customs Union.  Then Europe assumed that it could then proceed to impose on itself some serious self-inflicted wounds under the title “sanctions on Russia”, which have also not been a walk in the park for the Russians.  Europe assumed that it could do all of this, and more, and that Russia would be so desperate that in light of all of this, in light of the TEP, Ukraine, sanctions, and more, that Russia would pay forward the costs of developing the project, but let 
Europe control the physical infrastructures , revenues, and other critical aspects.

Still, it is possible that the deal is off the table for Bulgaria.  But no one can say definitively whether it is right now.  Sections from the Bulgarian elite are saying there is still a deal.  This means that they are doing one of two things.  One, they are accurately interpreting this December 1st statement as being serious bargaining language, and are trying to figure out how to reorganize themselves politically, making a ‘civilizational’ decision regarding Russia vs. the EU in its Atlanticist incarnation, and looking to make a counter-offer.   Or, they are unable to do meet these demands. Thus they would be buying time by trying to give false assurances to the tremendous and powerful interests inside of Bulgaria involved in the South Stream project.  As well, they would trying to placate the general populace who supported this, in order to stave off a rapid descent into political chaos.

Alexei Miller blames Bulgaria entirely, plays the role of bad cop, and says that the closing of the project had nothing to do with TEP.  This is an important warning to Bulgaria that it needs to move quickly. Putin plays the role of good cop, and allows PR cover for the Bulgarian government, blaming the EU, and giving the Bulgarian government some face-saving wiggle room.

A Russian-Turkish line does not have to exclude Bulgaria.  Russia has Bulgaria very concerned, for not only have they been told that the new line will exclude them, but that after it is complete, they will also be cut out of the line that runs from Ukraine.  That is a major cause for concern for Bulgaria, one which can force them to make a ‘civilizational’ decision, one which will determine their alignment for the next number of decades to come, and beyond.  Bulgaria may have been misled into thinking that they could play games.  They may have believed that in the event of a South Stream collapse, the Nabucco project could be brought back to life, despite problems with the Shah Deniz  energy consortium, and the failure for the Nabucco project to make headway in Levant, in the wake of serious Turkish, US and Israeli defeats vis-à-vis Syria and Egypt.

People are wondering why Europe is making such a huge mistake with the way they are interpreting and enforcing the TEP.  Yes, it can be said that Europe made a mistake here. Or, it can be said that Europe intentionally sabotaged this, and in so doing, sabotaged its own economy.  This latter case is almost understandable with an understanding of the considerable pressure which the US exerts on Europe.  The latter case makes more sense.

There are several critical factors facing Europe.  We can look at a few of them.

One critical factor which is often ignored by analysts looking at the ‘Triangle’ of Atlanticist Europe, Eurasia, and the ‘Near East’ (the Balkans, Turkey, and Arab World) is that this is actually a ‘Square’.  Europe is being threatened by the US that it will lose access to Latin America.

One point worth mentioning here is that the US has said that the age of the “Monroe Doctrine” is over.  Of course, this statement was aimed at Russia regarding Georgia, but in a different way also at Europe.  Today European investment in Latin America – considered in the 19th century to be within the US’s realm of influence by the Monroe Doctrine – is not insignificant.  Formal institutions, aimed at coordination, like the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Latin American Investment Facility (LAIF) represent but a tip of the iceberg in this regard.  There is also increasing investment from Latin American countries and firms into Europe.  All countries in Western Europe are tied to investments in Latin America.  The US tries to project to Europe that it has the capacity to effect coups or transitions of power in Latin America.  It shows it can do this through its traditional means of the military coup, or new methods such as the Color Revolution and Arab Spring tactic.

Both of these methods have failed to effect change in the so-called ‘Pink Tide’ countries in Latin America.  But a statistically improbably number of Pink Tide leaders either have cancer, or in the case of Chavez, have already died of it.  Of course the US still does business with Pink Tide countries.  But those terms are not as lucrative as they would be if those governments were mere puppets.  A portion of US trade with Latin America is done through proxies in Europe, or through MNC’s and TNC’s whose governing boards are comprised of both US and European nationals.

The European elite are divided.  Those who follow US dictates are tied to US interests in numerous ways.  Others in this lot are heavily invested in Latin America, and have not been convinced that the Russians or Chinese can protect these European investments from the US, in the event of a US initiated change of government in most Latin American countries, as in,  signifying a return to the Monroe Doctrine.  On the other hand are those in Europe who are more connected to Eurasia.  Right now they are both upset, and weakened.  Perhaps the window of opportunity for them to effect a concerted effort to change the present course has passed.  Perhaps it has not.

There is also another critical factor which revolves around other gas deals that had been in the works.
Indeed there is still yet another rational explanation, however, to Europe’s otherwise blundering arrogance.  Europe, like Bulgaria, was also thinking that it had options, which the Russian-Turkish deal actually makes an end-run around.

The US was also excited about this, and it related to its efforts in the Middle-East.  This was the so-called Southern Corridor plan, a part of Nabucco.

So, this partly explains the extraordinary efforts that the US has engaged in to overthrow the government of Syria.  Syria was the best choice to host a branch for Egyptian and Israeli liquefied natural gas into the Nabucco pipeline network.

The Nabucco line was to be a Turkish project, but on the European side involved a number of the same firms that would later go over to the South Stream project.  The Nabucco line also involved a number of the same countries as well.   Critically; Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria.

The South Stream was different in its starting point, and its trans-Pontic route.  Instead of Romania, it favored Serbia. Other than this, they were very similar projects.  Because they involved many of the same project companies on the European side, and promised to deliver similar volumes, the final decision to go with South Stream was a product of Russian success in the realms of diplomacy and related areas of intrigue.

gasmap

Additionally, the Nabucco project did not have the assurances on the eastern end, and would also have been a project that involved a number of companies and interests before arriving in Europe.  This also increased the cost. Thus, the ease of doing business, and the superior form of coordination that comes from dealing with a single state-owned company, such as Gazprom, was another important factor.  Keeping various and even conflicting multiple project companies all together, for ten years on a project that had not even broken ground, as was the case with Nabucco, was a lot like herding cats.

However, the Nabucco line was to get a good portion of its gas from the Azeri controlled Caspian offshore, a project under the control of the Shah Deniz energy consortium which works closely with BP.  This was to rely on support from Azerbaijan, passing through it, and as well possibly Georgia, and then into Turkey.

For a number of reasons, which Nabucco was nixed when the Shah Deniz  consortium decided to handle the project differently.  Then it was resurrected with a different route.  The background to this issue involves matters out of the scope of this report, but revolves around the complicated relationships between Russia and the post-Soviet states in the Caucuses, and the manner by which the latter have also made relationships with Turkey, within the context of constant meddling from the US and EU.

To state it clearly, time-frames notwithstanding, there were three projects.  The South Stream, the Nabucco, and the Trans-Anatolian to Trans Adriatic (TANAP/TAP).  But all three of them could not all go forward.  Contradictions or overlaps not only between the project companies, but also the underlying broader geostrategic and geopolitical concerns meant that TANAP/TAP could not go forward without the Nabucco going forward as most plans have these merged, and Nabucco was less viable at any rate with South Stream going forward.

Upon closer inspection, the TANAP/TAP and the Nabucco are really one and the same.  This is so even if  there were differences in project conceptions, involving some different project companies and minor differences in route.  At a point last year, it looked as Nabucco would work with the Shah Deniz  consortium and actually take a Central European route, through the North-South corridor.  This would have meandered up from Nabucco in Hungary, and towards the Baltic Sea cutting through both Slovakia and Czech Republic, and through Poland.

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This would have undermined the importance of two Russian lines, through Ukraine and Nord Stream.  But changes in the Hungarian political landscape, towards an overtly pro-Russian position, made this route unlikely. To cut up from Romania through Ukraine would be a burdensome addition by way of kilometers of pipe, given the project always had funding problems and what were perceived as inflated costs.

What this boiled down to was the EU encouraged on by the US, having Turkey and Russia compete endlessly.

This is also why, since last week’s announcement, EU’s optimistic talk of the TANAP/TAP project revival can seem strangely out of touch with reality.  Turkey, of course, is wise to diversify its sources, working with Azeri partners as well as Russian.  The Shah Deniz fields are estimated at no more than 1 trln. cm as opposed to Russia’s 48 trln. cm.  The Azeri estimated reserves are thus only about 2 % of the Russian [7].

Yes, the Azeris may produce, together with what they have and with the Shah Deniz II expansion, as much as 40 bcm per year.  But with a realistic reserve quantity of 1trln. cm, this isn’t going to last very long in the scheme of things, especially if production is to be expanded further.  So we can see that while Azeri contributions meant something, if the entire plan is to be worth the long term aims, always meant a combination with Nabucco.

This  in turn substantively meant the Southern Corridor through the Levant.

The Southern Corridor is a critical piece.  Azeri gas from the Shah Deniz field promised to make a new route viable.  Without Nabucco and Turkey, the Azeri’s really could not fund this.  Construction never began on Nabucco, and experienced all of the confusion between project companies, funding issues, and changed routes as described above.  What it relied on, to work, was incorporating Egyptian, Israeli, and Syrian gas to make a Southern Corridor, into Turkey and connect with the rest of Nabucco.

map_middleeast_oil3-499x453

TANAP/TAP cannot really work as a stand-alone project.  Europeans are at best talking their book, at worst, sorely misinformed.  Given the levels of ineptitude and nepotism which prevail in ‘Old Europe’, this last possibility is actually a great one.

This reality played a factor in the Arab Spring in Egypt and Syria.  Turkey backed the Arab Spring in Egypt, and had their man, Morsi, installed.  Morsi was not simply installed as part of the Arab Spring tactic by the US and Israel as part of a broader regional move against Iran.  Of course, this much is true.  But further, this in Egypt, was supposed to be a major development allowing for Egyptian natural gas to get to Turkey, through Israel and a Syria under a new western backed “FSA” leadership that favored Egypt, Israel, and Turkey over Iran and broadly speaking, Russia. 

Still Turkey’s previous plans with the Southern Corridor can be combined with a new Russian-Turkish pipeline.  This possibility may really underscore the significance of the Russian-Turkish deal, and the entire geostrategic and geopolitical realignment which may be underway.

Essentially, the position of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel as being firm pro-Western and anti-Russian natural gas interests meant  that Egypt and Syria would have to experience ‘regime change’ for all the pieces to link up.  While Egypt under Mubarak received western military aid and was an important US ally during the last decade of the cold war, and interpreting most generously could be said to have “looked the other way” on Israel-Palestine, he was opposed to regime change in Syria.  Syria could not act in line with a Turkish and Israeli plan given its relations with Iran, and Turkish relations with Iran.

The stage was set, then to make a “regime change” in Egypt and Syria, thus angling out  Iran, and perhaps even forcing Lebanon to act in concert with Israel against Hezbollah.

But Iran and Russia, working with Syria and its SAA effectively pushed back the foreign mercenary and Salafist invasion of Syria.  Yes, the US and Israel still push with its Saudi friends to finance a quasi-mythical ISIS, and even here in recent days we have seen a series of big defeats for ISIS.  In fact, these three latest major events – The Turkish-Russian gas deal announcement, the defeats suffered by ISIS, and the Israeli air-force provocations on Syria, are all intimately connected.

In the course of the Turkish end of the war against Syria, the disorganization, losses, and problematic western led alliance were such that pre-existing tensions between the Sauds and Qataris were exacerbated.  Turkey’s friendly Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt was subject to severe persecution in the pro-Salafist realm of peninsular Arabia.  Turkey’s friendly MB front in Palestine, Hamas, was being actively courted by Iran.

In the last year of this conflict, in the wake of the failed western attempt to blame Syria for a chemical attack it staged itself, Iran-Turkey relations have in fact warmed, seeing a 400% increase in bilateral trade.  Furthermore, Turkey reversed its decision on the convictions of leading Pro-Russian ‘Eurasianist’ leaders, some even in the military, who had been caught up in the so-called Ergenekon conspiracy.  This included the prominent Worker’s Party leader, Dogu Perencek, and other of his ranking Maoist-Kemalist comrades.  This last piece is significant in its symbolism more than anything else, but we live in a world of symbols and signs.

What we were left with, finally then, as a result, was the total fracturing of the US and Israeli led alliance against Syria.  Russia worked with some partners in the region to reverse the Arab Spring in Egypt, seeing the ousting of Morsi and his replacement by Sisi.  At first glance, this is a set-back for Turkey as well, and Russians may have either worked with, or fooled, the Saudis in helping with this.  Analysis on Saudi-Russian bilateral relations are generally a nebulous cloud of disinformation and misinformation, and we will leave these and related questions out of this report.

Now there is a new reality, the situation has reversed.

Iran-Turkey relations have warmed, and so have Russian-Turkish relations.  Egypt has committed itself in the area of foreign policy, to a good relationship with Ba’athist Syria of Assad.  Egypt will maintain Mubaraks’ old arrangement with Israel with regard to Palestine, tunnels, and the like.  But Egyptian natural gas will only make its way, now, through to Turkey’s ‘Russian Turkish Line’, replacing Nabucco, if it goes through the legitimate government of Syria.

If it is also to involve Israel, it may be possible to place some conditions on Israel.  Besides ending its war against Syria, and ending its rhetoric on Iran, it could also include the recognition of Palestine and profit sharing with Palestine, whom the offshore Gazan resource legally belongs to.  We should not be optimistic here, but as well it is possible for a new route for the Egyptian end, as the southern-most part of the ‘new’ Southern-Corridor project, to meander through the Sinai through Jordan, or go by sea to Syria.  This may mean that if Israel wants to expand their market, it may need to work through its Netanyahu disaster period, and elect a Labor government with center-right instead of far-right social and economic policy, and policy on Palestine.  All of this is entirely speculative, and probably unlikely.  But Israel needs this project more than the other parties need Israel.  Israel will need to weight, however, numerous factors which not only directly relate to energy markets.  In reality, Israel finds itself increasingly isolated in the region.  Experts have already explained for at least a decade, that the Israeli Zionist project may be unsustainable and could be winding down.  Some have even pondered if the Zionist entity would be looking to relocate to the emerging rump-state of Western Ukraine, where, biblical lore aside, many Israelis can materially trace their recent history to.  Nevertheless, Israel has reached a critical place, and has some difficult decisions to make.

Israel is going to be the most problematic piece, but the Azeris also have an opportunity to re-align their interests with the new plan.  The fusion of Nabucco and South Stream with TANAP/TAP is still a possibility too.  BP will not like this per se, but the Shah Deniz consortium is going to have to make some difficult decisions and work that piece out.  This is doubly true if there is a serious policy change in Azerbaijan.  Like with Israel, the Azeris need to be a part of this project more than the project needs them.

The Azeri’s only other option is the ever elusive White Stream. Yulia Tymoshenko herself proposed this to the EU as far back as 2008.  There are numerous problems here, including that it was to cross from Georgia into the Black Sea and to Crimea.  But Crimea is Russia now, and at present time it is truly up in the air if Ukraine will become a landlocked rump-state, or have regime change, long before such a project can be completed, let alone started.  Romania, which has been removed from the Russian-Turkish proposal in its Nabucco form, may be the only viable partner.  But this would mean extensive construction across the black sea from Georgia to Romania.  These were the same obstacles which precluded the possibility of any kind of TANAP/TAP project that didn’t go through Turkey.  In reality, if a project cannot pay by itself for a relatively limited supply (Azeri) to traverse the Black Sea, it will have  to work with Russia or Turkey, who have now teamed up.

With regard to the entire scope of the Russian-Turkish gas deal in general, we should be cautious in speculating much on the future course of it, or what it all may mean.  We have attempted to sketch out what some of the primary factors are.  We have given some details and the related background, of the natural gas contest and its primacy not only to Russia and Ukraine, and the Balkans.  We have explained also how this collided and yet now coincides with a Turkish supported project.

We should still expect future public talk on this subject which places the new deal into question.  This is all part of the process and the spectacle.  It is even still possible that Israel will provoke such a response in Syria and Lebanon that Iran will be hard pressed not to react, increasing the bellicosity and instability in the region, making a Turkish re-orientation of the Southern Corridor more difficult.

Likewise, the West may still effectively divide Russian from Turkish interests.  It will definitely make every attempt to.  The Russians and Turks, if they are to stay together on this project, will likely entertain the illusion for the West that its disruptive efforts are working at times, because this is how it’s done.

It made little sense for Russia and Turkey to both have lines through roughly the same route, with the success of the Turkish one requiring instability in the Levant, the destruction of Syria, and a coup in Egypt.  Now that Russia and Turkey have announced to the world that they will not have their interests placed at odds with each other through the manipulation of the US, EU, and Israel, we can see a geopolitical shift in the making, of tectonic proportions.

Again, this is not over for Bulgaria either, but as with Bosnia and Serbia, the conflict in Ukraine stands a good chance at spreading, especially as Balkans states could re-align in a decisively pro-Russian direction.  Still, energy markets are huge, but they are not everything.

Russia’s future tasks are clear.  If Bulgaria can come to its senses, Russia must help Bulgaria with its security apparatus, for example, helping to restructure its intelligence and secret police agencies.  It must provide Bulgaria with these and other assurances.  Russia must also, if is to build again with the EU, demonstrate that it can protect assets and investments in Latin America.

Europe must understand that the Balkans can only be a place where either both EU, Russia and Turkey can have an interest, or that it will be without Europe, with only Russia and Turkey having an interest.  This would mirror an historical pattern, as well.

The EU should not be forced to commit suicide by cutting off its access to affordable energy resources from Russia and the Middle-East, at the threat of losing access to Latin American markets under conditions of increased US bellicosity in that region.

Some analysts have looked at the low prices and attractive terms which Russia have offered to its partners, including China, and now Turkey and India, regarding energy markets.  Some have said that Putin is showing Russian weakness with such a low price.  Others, more accurately have said that Putin is broad in thinking, and is focusing more on market share than market price.  This is a fair point, and closer to the truth.

But all of these exciting adventures in capitalism are not going to mean very much on an irradiated earth primarily populated by cockroaches feeding off of highly adaptive bacteria.   The bigger picture we can draw from all of this is a Russia is thinking long term, and issues like stability are more important than quarterly fluctuations.   It is committed to building a multi-polar world which will save the world from the US Empire, save Europe from itself, and enable conditions for sovereignty and development in whole regions like the Balkans, Middle-east, Africa, Asia, and Latin America.



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  1. http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/764957
  2. http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/india-eyes-40-bn-pipeline-from-russia-to-import-gas/article1-1248292.aspx
  3. http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2010/03/11/ENI-calls-for-South-Stream-Nabucco-links/UPI-96591268317232/
  4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_interception_of_Turkish_aircraft
  5. http://www.globalresearch.ca/terrorism-in-syria-turkey-deports-more-than-one-thousand-european-al-qaeda-affiliated-mercenaries/5360178
  1. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2009/07/13/energy-nabucco-iran-idUKLD60806920090713?sp=true
  2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves                              ***************
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